April Employment Preview
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for April. The consensus is for 130,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. There were 228,000 jobs added in March, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%. From Goldman Sachs: We forecast that payrolls rose 140k in April (vs. consensus +130k) and the unemployment rate was flat at 4.2%. ... Big data indicators suggest slower but still healthy job growth in April. We expect a 15k decline in federal government payrolls and a slower but still positive 15k increase in state and local payrolls. We think April was probably too early to see large negative trade war or policy uncertainty effects on hiring.emphasis addedFrom BofA: Apr payrolls are likely to rise by a robust 165k, higher than consensus expectations of 130k. Government job growth is expected to come in at 10k due to the federal hiring freeze/DOGE. Given the muted claims data in the survey week, we do not expect DOGE driven job cuts to be a sizable drag. Immigration restrictions are likely to weigh on payrolls in the coming months but we don’t think they’ll have a substantial impact in Apr. That said, risks are to the downside. We expect the u-rate to remain at 4.2%. • ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed 62,000 private sector jobs were added in April. This was well below consensus forecasts and suggests job gains below consensus expectations, however, in general, ADP hasn't been very useful in forecasting the BLS report. • ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires). The ISM® manufacturing employment index 46.5%, up from 44.7% the previous month. This would suggest about 40,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. The ADP report indicated 4,000 manufacturing jobs added in April. The ISM® services employment index will be released next week. • Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed about the same initial unemployment claims during the reference week at 216,000 inApril compared to 225,000 in March. This suggests layoffs in April were about the same or a little less as in March.• Conclusion: Over the last year, employment gains averaged 157 thousand per month - and that was probably the trend prior to policy changes. It still seems early for the government (DOGE) layoffs and tariff related layoffs to impact the employment report. However, my guess is we will start to see the impact of policy uncertainty impacting employment - a little - and I'll take the under for April.
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for April. The consensus is for 130,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. There were 228,000 jobs added in March, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%.
From Goldman Sachs:
• ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires). The ISM® manufacturing employment index 46.5%, up from 44.7% the previous month. This would suggest about 40,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. The ADP report indicated 4,000 manufacturing jobs added in April.
The ISM® services employment index will be released next week.
• Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed about the same initial unemployment claims during the reference week at 216,000 inApril compared to 225,000 in March. This suggests layoffs in April were about the same or a little less as in March.
From Goldman Sachs:
We forecast that payrolls rose 140k in April (vs. consensus +130k) and the unemployment rate was flat at 4.2%. ... Big data indicators suggest slower but still healthy job growth in April. We expect a 15k decline in federal government payrolls and a slower but still positive 15k increase in state and local payrolls. We think April was probably too early to see large negative trade war or policy uncertainty effects on hiring.From BofA:
emphasis added
Apr payrolls are likely to rise by a robust 165k, higher than consensus expectations of 130k. Government job growth is expected to come in at 10k due to the federal hiring freeze/DOGE. Given the muted claims data in the survey week, we do not expect DOGE driven job cuts to be a sizable drag. Immigration restrictions are likely to weigh on payrolls in the coming months but we don’t think they’ll have a substantial impact in Apr. That said, risks are to the downside. We expect the u-rate to remain at 4.2%.• ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed 62,000 private sector jobs were added in April. This was well below consensus forecasts and suggests job gains below consensus expectations, however, in general, ADP hasn't been very useful in forecasting the BLS report.
• ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires). The ISM® manufacturing employment index 46.5%, up from 44.7% the previous month. This would suggest about 40,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. The ADP report indicated 4,000 manufacturing jobs added in April.
The ISM® services employment index will be released next week.
• Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed about the same initial unemployment claims during the reference week at 216,000 inApril compared to 225,000 in March. This suggests layoffs in April were about the same or a little less as in March.
• Conclusion: Over the last year, employment gains averaged 157 thousand per month - and that was probably the trend prior to policy changes. It still seems early for the government (DOGE) layoffs and tariff related layoffs to impact the employment report. However, my guess is we will start to see the impact of policy uncertainty impacting employment - a little - and I'll take the under for April.
