Apple is getting screwed by Trump's tariffs

• Donald Trump's tariffs are about to hit Apple hard.
• Tariffs are set to hit Apple's key manufacturing hubs, including China, Vietnam, Thailand, and others.
• It could mean more expensive iPhones if Apple passes the costs on to consumers.

Tim Cook might be out of luck this time: Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs look like they're about to hit Apple hard.

A long-expected executive order signed by the president on Wednesday introduced a 34% tariff on goods from Apple's most important manufacturing hub — China. It adds to an existing 20% tariff, meaning the effective tariff rate on the country is now 54%.

China has long been its central hub for manufacturing and assembling everything from iPhones to MacBooks. Tariffs now threaten to raise the cost of Apple goods imported from the center of its supply chain universe.

Although the sweeping tariffs are also set to hit other tech companies with sprawling supply chains — such as Tesla or Nvidia — it's a particularly big hit for Apple.

Jamie MacEwan, senior analyst at Enders Analysis, previously told Business Insider he estimates that "almost half of Apple's revenue is exposed to China through direct sales and the supply chain."

It is also a blow to Cook, who has spent years trying to build a tight-knit relationship with Trump. The Apple CEO met the president for dinner at Mar-a-Lago in December, attended his inauguration in January, and pledged a $500 billion investment in the US in February.

Apple has made moves in recent years to diversify its supply chain away from China in the face of geopolitical tensions, but Trump's levies appear to diminish even those efforts.

The countries Apple has increasingly shifted manufacturing and assembly operations to — India, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Ireland — have all been hit with tariffs above Trump's baseline 10% rate.

Though Cook managed to secure an exemption for the company when Trump first escalated a tariff-led trade war in 2018, as things stand, Apple has no escape from the latest wave of tariffs.

Apple did not immediately respond to Business Insider's request for comment.

The reality facing Apple is already being digested by markets. Apple shares fell by about 9% on Thursday as investors triggered a panic sell-off over fears of the implications of Trump's plans.

In a note, analysts at investment bank Citi wrote that "if Apple cannot get exempted this time and assuming Apple gets hit by the accumulative 54% China tariffs and does not pass it through, we estimate about 9% negative impact to the company's total gross margin."

Analysts at Jefferies, meanwhile, wrote in a Thursday note that in their worst-case scenario — one in which the 27 million iPhones made in China and imported to the US are subject to the 54% tariff — Apple's net profit for the fiscal year could be reduced by 14%.

This all paints a less-than-pretty picture for Apple and, potentially, its consumers. Without an exemption, there could be more expensive iPhones on the way, Apple's margins could take a hit — or both.