Analyzing why Dylan Cozens has been such a beast for the Senators
The Senators’ lineup is well-balanced with deadline acquisition Dylan Cozens in it. Adam Vingan dives into why and what it’s meant to the team’s playoff hopes.
Dylan Cozens and many of his new Ottawa Senators have something in common: They have never experienced the thrill of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
But a 7-0-1 stretch to start March — Ottawa’s longest point streak since a nine-game run in 2014-15 — has the Senators in position to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017. They are 5-0-0 since Cozens joined the team at the trade deadline, outscoring opponents 21-11.
Five games into his Senators career, Cozens has four points (two goals and two assists), a 58.5 faceoff win percentage and a whopping 23 hits, including a career-high nine in his debut.
“It’s what you want to be doing. You want to be in the hunt for (the) playoffs, and to be here and get thrown into these big games, it’s been awesome,” Cozens said on Hockey Night in Canada before the Senators completed the season sweep of the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday. “The guys are great here. It’s a really close group, and everyone’s bought in to what we’re trying to do here.”
Cozens has fit seamlessly on the second line in place of Josh Norris, whom the Senators sent to the Buffalo Sabres in the deal. He and his linemates, David Perron and Drake Batherson, have generated 70.9 per cent of the expected goals at even strength and outscored opponents 4-0 through five games. Scoring chances are 20-7 in the Senators’ favour.
Senators coach Travis Green also added Cozens to the top power-play unit, which paid off when Cozens scored the game-winning goal against the Detroit Red Wings last week on a one-timer in the slot. (Cozens recorded four power-play goals over his final season and a half in Buffalo.)
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It is well documented that Cozens, 24, has struggled to replicate the breakout season that earned him his seven-year, $49.7-million contract. After posting career highs in goals (31) and points (68) in 2022-23, Cozens totaled 29 goals and 78 points over his final 140 games with the Sabres.
For the Senators, the key to getting Cozens back to that form is to let him loose in open ice. Two seasons ago, Cozens finished tied for ninth in rush goals (12) and tied for 16th in rush chances (74) — an average of 0.91 per game. This season, however, he is generating 0.7 rush chances per game, scoring just three times.
The good news for Ottawa is that the transition opportunities have been there for Cozens, who leads the team with five rush chances since he arrived. His 16 controlled entries — 14 of which are carry-ins — rank second behind Tim Stützle’s 28.
The Senators’ lineup is well-balanced with Cozens in it. Case in point: The team’s highest-scoring line over the past eight games has featured Ridly Greig, Shane Pinto and Michael Amadio. They have been on the ice for six Senators goals at even strength. It takes the pressure off Stützle, Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux to carry the load (though they have combined for 11 goals and 24 points in March).
There is also much more certainty when it comes to Cozens’ durability. Norris’ recurring shoulder injuries forced him to the sidelines for long stretches, requiring Senators coaches to constantly adjust. (Norris has already missed games for the Sabres.)
Ottawa’s offence has been virtually unstoppable during the team’s 7-0-1 run, scoring at least four goals in seven of the eight games. And based on the shot quality the Senators have generated this month, they actually are underperforming offensively.
The Senators are absolute menaces in front of the net. Fourteen of their 34 goals over the past eight games have been scored from the inner slot, led by Pinto (four). Ottawa’s league-leading 62 screened shots on net this month have led to five goals.
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On the morning of March 1, the Senators were four points out of a playoff spot and had a roughly 50/50 shot of qualifying. They are now six points clear of the cutoff line and have a 95 per cent of reaching the post-season. (Ottawa has also gained eight points on Toronto since the start of the month.)
It certainly looks like Cozens and the Senators will finally get their taste of playoff hockey.
