Analyzing Hellebuyck’s playoff struggles and how Jets can help him rebound
Hellebuyck’s early exits have become a familiar sight over the Jets’ past two playoff runs. Adam Vingan explains what the goaltender needs to do better and how his teammates can help him.
Moments after letting in his fifth goal Sunday afternoon, Connor Hellebuyck drifted toward the Winnipeg Jets’ bench. Teammates offered supportive stick taps to his leg pads, knowing they could have done more to help. He patted partner Eric Comrie on the back before putting down his gear and taking a seat for the remainder of the St. Louis Blues’ series-tying win.
Hellebuyck’s early exits have become a familiar sight over the Jets’ past two playoff runs. The presumptive Vezina Trophy winner and Hart Trophy candidate has been pulled in three of his past nine playoff starts. By contrast, Hellebuyck failed to complete just one of his 122 starts in the past two regular seasons.
“I thought the first two games, our goaltending was better than theirs,” Jets coach Scott Arniel told reporters. “(Next) two games, their goaltending was better than ours. Plain and simple.”
The Blues scored 5.49 goals above expected on Hellebuyck in Games 3 and 4 — the first time in more than three years that the Jets pulled Hellebuyck from consecutive starts. (It last happened April 15-16, 2022, according to NHL Stats and Information.)
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“You don’t win 47 games and then come the playoffs switch everything up,” Hellebuyck told reporters Monday. “I know how it needs to look. I like a lot of things. I’m not going to go and make huge changes. That being said, I’m going to be better. That’s my job, and that’s the foot that I’m putting forward. I can’t be giving up this many goals.”
Screens were a major issue for Hellebuyck last post-season when he allowed 10 goals on 38 screened shots (.737 save percentage) in the first round against the Colorado Avalanche. Hellebuyck has given up three goals to the Blues on 16 screened shots, which translates to an .813 save percentage that ranks 15th out of 16 goaltenders who have played at least three games in these playoffs. (He saved 92.7 per cent of those shots during the regular season.)
St. Louis has also scored three times off deflections. That does not include goals that ricochet off defenders; Justin Faulk’s goal Sunday that caromed off Neal Pionk’s backside, for example, does not factor into the total.
“He’s the best goalie in the world,” Pionk told reporters, “but he can’t stop what he can’t see.”
Interestingly, the Jets have been better at preventing deflections and screened shots in the playoffs, albeit in a smaller sample than the regular season. The Blues deserve credit for being so good at getting their deflections on net, doing so on five of their eight attempts (62.5 per cent) in the series. They were a perfect 4-for-4 in Games 3 and 4, scoring on three of them. St. Louis had the highest deflection success rate in the league this regular season at 56.8 per cent but scored the third-fewest deflection goals (13).
“I think there is a blueprint of how teams want to play us,” Hellebuyck told reporters. “That being said, it’s not like we don’t have an answer for it.”
Hellebuyck, however, has given up significantly more rebounds on screened shots. Twelve of the Blues’ 16 screened shots (92.3 per cent) on Hellebuyck have generated rebounds, compared to the 61.1 per cent he posted in that category during the regular season. Although the Blues have not been credited with a rebound goal in the series, Hellebuyck is giving them ample opportunity to cash in on one.
One thing to keep an eye on as the series continues is where the Blues are targeting Hellebuyck. Nine of St. Louis’ 15 goals (60 per cent) against Hellebuyck have beaten him high glove. His .571 save percentage on shots aimed at the top right corner of the net is a vast departure from the .896 save percentage he recorded before the playoffs.
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Hellebuyck’s regular-season accolades speak for themselves, but his post-season play over the past three years is cause for concern. He has lost 10 of 14 starts and allowed a combined 12 goals above expected.
His belief in himself, though, has not wavered.
“You don’t want to go into a game playing with fear,” Hellebuyck told reporters. “If you play with fear, that’s when you start actually making mistakes and wanting things back. We go out, we play our game and you continue to be better every single shift and every single game and every single day. That’s my mindset moving forward, and I’m looking forward to it.”
Watch Hellebuyck try to get back on track when the Jets host the Blues in Game 5 at 8:30 p.m. MT/ 9:30 p.m. ET.
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