2025 fantasy baseball draft busts: Five overvalued players to avoid

When MLB teams head south for spring training, fantasy baseball players have their own way of preparing for the upcoming season: rankings lists, stat kits, and mock drafts. 

The most challenging part of the scramble to create a roster can be identifying players that will come back to haunt managers in the middle of their playoff race. 

To help sort through this year’s pile of bust candidates, here are five players you should consider avoiding at their average draft position (ADP) given their recent performance or injury history.

(*ADP subject to change)

Chris Sale, SP, Atlanta Braves

ADP: 35.0

The eight-time All-Star entered last season fresh off a trade to the Braves after a bounce-back effort with the Boston Red Sox in 2023. He had just posted an ERA of 4.30, averaged 10.9 K/9 and threw 100 innings for the first time since 2019.

No one, not even the Braves, expected he’d return to his prime. He dominated with a 2.38 ERA, 225 strikeouts and 18 wins to claim the NL pitching triple crown, and finally captured his first Cy Young Award.

This year, however, drafters that take Sale as their No. 1 pitcher, expecting the almost 36-year-old to repeat his performance, could be left without a bona fide ace if they are not careful.

Last year’s triumph did not quite end as planned. He pitched 177.2 innings – more than he’d thrown combined since 2019 – and ended up being left off the Braves’ wild-card roster after battling with back spasms and a dip in velocity down the stretch.

With last year’s unsatisfying finish and his injury track record, his pathway to finish top 10 in starting pitching for fantasy this season remains limited. 

Jacob deGrom, SP, Texas Rangers

ADP: 63.2

DeGrom was once undoubtedly atop the pitcher rankings, but expecting him to provide this much fantasy value in 2025 is incredibly risky. The two-time Cy Young winner has pitched even less than Sale has recently.

He has thrown just 265.1 frames over the last five seasons, failing to surpass a year with over 92 IP in that span.

Avoiding a 36-year-old in who has made nine starts in the past two years usually wouldn’t take convincing, but deGrom holds a 2.10 ERA and 411 strikeouts in those limited appearances.

The hype surrounding his return is justified given his pedigree, but a top-100 selection could steer a fantasy rotation into treacherous waters if another season is lost. There are much safer options available at this point in the draft.

Cody Bellinger, OF/1B/DH, New York Yankees

ADP: 90.4

When Bellinger entered free agency in the winter of 2022, he had already won the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year, the 2019 NL MVP Award and a World Series with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2020. But strangely, his stock could not have been much lower.

Following an injury-riddled stretch through 2021, he was a below league-average hitter for a full season in 2022. Putting together just 19 homers and an 83 wRC+, while striking out 27.3 per cent of the time, Bellinger was 10th-worst out of 130 qualified hitters.

After taking a modest three-year deal with the Chicago Cubs, Bellinger broke out of his slump, cutting down his strikeouts and clubbing 26 home runs in 2023. However, he took another downward turn in 2024 and the Cubs shipped him to the Yankees this past offseason.

A possible explanation for his lack of pop, is the fact that his barrel percentage has vanished from 12.7 in 2019, to a lowly 6.9 in 2024. He has also failed to rank inside the top-200 qualified hitters in hard-hit percentage over the last two seasons.

There won’t be much fantasy value left to squeeze out of Bellinger in any format, if the power numbers continue to plummet at the rate they have.

Luis Robert Jr., OF, Chicago White Sox

ADP: 111.2

Ah, the 2024 White Sox, the worst team in MLB history. Right in the heart of their lineup was Robert Jr., well, sometimes. 

The 27-year-old missed the first two months of the season with a right hip issue and returned in June to post a lowly 84 wRC+. He hit just 14 home runs and collected only 35 RBIs while striking out a career-high 33.2 per cent of the time – second worst in all of baseball had he qualified. 

This wasn’t the first time Robert Jr. has struggled to stay on the field. He has eclipsed 450 plate appearances just once in his five-year career.

It is generally best to avoid this collection of hitters, especially because the White Sox didn’t make any notable additions following last year’s colossal disaster. There will be much more productive options available at this point in the draft.

Xander Boegarts, SS/2B, San Diego Padres

ADP: 145.0

Once a fantasy darling with the Red Sox, Boegarts has now failed to eclipse 20 homers and 75 RBIs over the last three years. He has also seen his on-base percentage, wRC+ and fWAR fall consistently since joining the Padres in 2022.

The 33-year-old predominantly played second base in 2024 but will be shifting back to shortstop for the upcoming schedule, adding more to his plate defensively.

If you peel back the curtain even further, his barrel and hard-hit percentages, along with his walk rate have all shifted for the worse. Not to mention he only picked up 27 extra base hits last season, 15 fewer than in 2023.

Boegarts was drafted with an ADP of 72.8 in 2023, and 86.4 in 2024. Both years, he drastically failed to meet those expectations in points and category formats. 

There will be plenty of viable options at the shortstop position in fantasy this season, especially in the mid-to-late rounds, so don’t pull the trigger on one if the price doesn’t feel right.

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