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Why Claude Giroux’s free agency could chart course of Senators’ off-season
Three years ago, Claude Giroux returning to his hometown Ottawa Senators seemed simple. But now, as the 37-year-old forward returns to free agency, there’s much more at stake for both player and team.
OTTAWA — For the Ottawa Senators, there is no bigger off-season domino than the future of Claude Giroux.
Three summers ago, Giroux was a free agent, as he will be again this summer. Back then, decided to take a chance on a young team in his hometown.
Both Giroux and the Senators eagerly wanted each other. Now, though, things are more complicated — a Senators-Giroux reunion is more conundrum than serendipitous embrace.
Both sides were mum when asked about their future with each other.
“It’s still early. I haven’t given it any thoughts,” Giroux said. “I haven’t really talked to (general manager) Steve (Staios) yet. I love the players, the fans, the city. This year is the most fun I’ve had in a few years.”
“We love (Giroux). We want to have him back,” said Staios, while also saying he wouldn’t discuss whether the two were having substantial contract negotiations.
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The 37-year-old Giroux clearly wants to keep playing hockey. Whether that’s in Ottawa or elsewhere is the question.
“I feel like I have a lot left in the tank. I’m loving hockey right now,” said Giroux. “I want to play. Feel like I can be an impact player.”
But for the Senators, the determining factor in signing Giroux will be just how much is left in said tank.
Maybe the most interesting aspect of the potential contract negotiations will be determining a dollar value for Giroux.
With the salary cap rising, does Giroux believe he’s worth $4-5 million? What’s the term of that contract? And do the Senators believe that’s a fair valuation for a player on the decline, edging towards the age of 40?
Where’s the middle ground?
A one- or two-year contract between $3-4 million seems fair, but does Giroux want that? And would he try to find a better contract elsewhere, even if it means uprooting his family?
Family, money and business will all come into play in these negotiations.
Giroux has a solid Hall-of-Fame case with 1,116 career points, but he slipped to 50 points (still good!) this season, marking his lowest points-per-game clip since his 2009-10 sophomore season. Father time hits everyone including the ClaudeFather, as Senators fans sometimes affectionately call him. At one point this season, Giroux even played on the third line.
Meanwhile, it’s hard to know how the not-so-fleet-of-foot Giroux will age. A comparable could be Joe Pavelski, who thrived as an elder statesman in Dallas but struggled as a 39-year-old in the playoffs last season, recording only four points in 19 games.
Paying an aging star would create plenty of quandaries.
The Senators have over $17 million in cap space, but still need to sign defenceman Tyler Kleven and forward Fabian Zetterlund as well as addressing their backup goaltender position while filling out depth. Giroux’s future also impacts how long-term the Senators want to sign players. Typically, when signing young players like Kleven or Zetterlund to longer-term contracts, their AAV rises because you are buying off potential free-agent years when in theory they could be making more based on future performance.
Just imagine if Tim Stutzle took a bridge contract instead of signing long-term. That was a bet for Ottawa at $8.35 million over eight years, and it’s paying off. But Ottawa might not be able to bet as big this off-season if it eats up cap space with Giroux.
Meanwhile, if the Senators want to add a substantial piece in free agency or via trade, signing Giroux could hamper their ability to improve — although it would also clarify the need to add another defenceman. If Giroux stays, the Senators’ next move will likely be to acquire an impactful right-shot blue liner who could boost their defence corps from good to elite.
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However, if the Senators lose Giroux, it would make their No. 1 off-season goal clear: acquire a top-six forward. It wouldn’t be easy, and it might mean overpaying in free agency or a trade.
The Senators could try to pursue top forwards such as Nikolaj Ehlers, Brock Boeser, Brad Marchand and others in free agency. On paper, any would represent an improvement over Giroux next season and into the future.
Staios has shown that he isn’t afraid to trade away a beloved teammate if he feels it’s the right move — just look at Josh Norris. The right move, if possible, is to mirror Tampa Bay general manager Julian BriseBois, who let go of Steven Stamkos for the younger and better Jake Guentzel last off-season.
Don’t forget Staios also swung for the fences with the Linus Ullmark move last year.
Sometimes picking your head over your heart works, and Staios should prioritize improving his team over anything else.
However it plays out, Giroux’s destiny this summer will have an enormous ripple effect on the Senators’ off-season.
