Thoughts and Prayers for Yuki Tsunoda’s F1 Career

My Formula 1 compass must be broken because, despite all the rumors swirling around Red Bull Racing pointing in a certain direction since late last year, my gut told me that none of them would come true. I’m talking about the sacking of Sergio Perez, which I didn’t think would happen. Despite his lack of form through 2024, I was confident Red Bull would keep the experienced racer in the seat for the last year of the current regulations—and if he didn’t improve, then open it up for 2026. I was wrong. Then, I was convinced Yuki Tsunoda would be Perez’s direct replacement. I was wrong again. Then, I thought Red Bull wouldn’t kick Liam Lawson to the curb after just two races. I was wrong again. I now find myself hoping to be wrong about Tsunoda taking a bite of the forbidden fruit, which, as we all know by now, ends in despair and broken dreams.

Less than 24 hours after last weekend’s Chinese Grand Prix, reports claiming that Red Bull was seriously considering replacing Lawson with Tsunoda were already making the rounds. By Tuesday, outlets like ESPN were already confirming the swap, though their reports lacked official confirmation. Wednesday, I reached out to a few well-connected contacts of mine, all of whom confirmed the deal was nearly finalized, but that negotiations between Red Bull, Tsunoda’s management, and big-money sponsor Honda were still tense. In other words, yes, but also, things could fall apart any minute.

Thursday morning comes and boom—it’s done. Tsunoda will attempt to succeed where many have failed. I like Yuki; I’ve had a few chats with him on and off the record, and he’s great. But so is Lawson. Is Tsunoda more skilled than Perez? I don’t believe so. Despite his fall from grace last year, Perez accomplished many things with that car that no one else had previously been able to. And not to mention, he always played his role in helping Max Verstappen win championships. Let’s not forget his famous nicknames like “Mexican Minister of Defense” and “The Tire Whisperer.”

Does anyone really think that Tsunoda is going to waltz into the Red Bull garage, hop in the RB21, and suddenly lap within a couple of tenths of Verstappen? Because as of right now, that’s the job. Red Bull needs a driver who can finish one position lower than Verstappen at every race. The team desperately needs those championship points. And then there’s the media frenzy Tsunoda will have to deal with, and the fact that he’ll be doing all of this at his home race and with Honda HRC looking for a return on its investment which, as far as I know, is rumored to be about $30 million.

Earlier this week, our F1 contributor Olivia Hicks explained that Red Bull has built a team to serve Verstappen, with the needs, wants, and desires of the second driver being completely ignored. She details how Lawson’s poor performance is a symptom of Red Bull’s problems and not the cause of them. The team got away with this mindset for a few years, mostly because Perez was always able to do just enough to justify his seat, but mostly because Verstappen was winning every race and racking up record-breaking points. In 2025, though, that’s no longer the case.

After his undisclosed payoff, Perez is laughing all the way to the bank, recently buying a $10 million vacation condo in Miami and enjoying flying private with his family across Europe, the States, and Mexico. Lawson, after living a fairytale off-season as a Red Bull driver and two miserable races, is being told he’s damaged goods. Tsunoda is now the hot new thing, but will he still be that in two races’ time? Probably not. But then again, my F1 compass is broken.

Got a tip? Email us at tips@thedrive.com

The post Thoughts and Prayers for Yuki Tsunoda’s F1 Career appeared first on The Drive.