The Reality Show Presidency Comes To The Department of Education

I was on The Disagreement with Alex Grodd earlier this week. You can watch here.

Rick Hess and I also joined Nat Malkus on his podcast. You can listen here.

Both podcasts are about what’s happening in education policy in Washington. I’m also doing private events for some groups—email if interested can share more and references.

At the White House today, the President will sign a, depending who you are, long-anticipated, long-awaited, and/or long-feared executive order to abolish the Department of Education. Even among the Trump team, the EO has sparked weeks of internal debate. A strategic leak to The Wall Street Journal was intended to lock it in. Questions about efficacy, laws governing personnel, and broader strategy have complicated the effort. Trump doesn’t care much about that—he loves the optics. So today it happens.

I can’t tell you what’s going to happen next. This is Donald Trump. Anyone who claims they know exactly what’s coming—you shouldn’t trust them. This is the most situational administration of this century, or the last one. You know who doesn’t know exactly what’s next? Donald Trump.

Still, here are a few ways to think about it in broad strokes:

First, despite some state-level support, the reality remains: there are not 60 votes in the Senate to abolish the Department—possibly not even 50. The closer we get to the 2026 election, the harder it becomes to hit 218 in the House. It’s a symbolic issue that some elected officials are eager to grab onto, while most would prefer it go away—the issue, not the agency. Smart Republicans understand this plays well with the base, but it’s not their strongest move on the education opportunity they’ve been handed. Even wrapped in the appealing language of “returning authority to the states” (most of which already rests with the states), it’s a complicated sell.

Second, Trump isn’t having a great week(s). The Russian president is thumbing his nose at us, courts are overturning many of Trump’s actions, Republican pushback is growing, nominees are hitting headwinds even in the Republican-controlled Senate, and everyone’s worried about the economy or their 401(k)—or both. His poll numbers aren’t collapsing like some folks think over on Bluesky, but there are real warning signs for Trump. So, it’s time for theatrics—a big East Room event this afternoon.

Three scenarios:

1. They’re dead serious.
   In this scenario, they’ll spend political capital and push Congress—as they’ve done before, for example, on the continuing resolution. Every president gets a few big priorities. If this is one of them, they’ll try to follow through. They’re aiming to abolish the Department entirely, not just restructure it. Literal and serious.
2. This is a restructuring plan with some fanfare.
   The 60/218 vote problem is real. So maybe they just default to restructure. The draft EO shows key functions of the Department continuing, just not within the current framework and Department. That’s more bureaucratic sleight of hand than real reform. It gives everyone the fight they want without major consequences. Serious, not literal.
3. This is all “Art of the Deal” BS and show business.
   They want something else. This is entertainment for the Republican base and a long-time white whale for conservatives. It shifts focus, takes pressure off, and—as Trump often does—puts himself at the center of the conversation. They’ll keep revisiting the issue, like a popular recurring character on a sitcom—the Department of Education as the Costanzas.

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I’d keep an eye on a blend of #2 and #3. If Trump moves student aid to the Treasury Department, not a completely crazy idea, he’ll be able to claim he cut the Department by 95%—a solid talking point.

Their language for today: “return education authority to the States, while continuing to ensure the effective and uninterrupted delivery of services, programs, and benefits on which Americans rely.” Not quite the education policy equivalent of “eat bacon and bonbons and lose weight too,” but close. Also, watch the personnel. Until you see serious people exiting or declining nominations, outright abolition probably isn’t the real plan.

I’d watch the waiver process, too—that could end up being the bigger policy shift. States are already lining up. As we’ve discussed before, with this crew, the theatrics usually overshadow or obscure the real moves. The waiver gambit may ultimately matter more than the EO. Trump handing out waivers in splashy fashion is tailor-made for his kind of TV. Waivers don’t require Congress, and even if he stretches his authority, Congress seems unlikely to push back. Unfortunately, there’s bipartisan precedent for that. Waivers could also open the door to more school choice moves.

The risk? As with past federal waivers—NCLB under Bush and Obama, or Race to the Top—even well-structured initially rigorous processes tend to devolve into door prizes over time. I’m not even sure how well-structured this will be.

What’s a little odd is we just tried a giant block grant experiment—$190 billion during Covid. The consensus and evidence? It didn’t accomplish much. We might want to learn from that before doubling down. State flexibility is great, I’m in favor, but federal guardrails around accountability and consequently assessment matter.

Meanwhile, if Democrats are any good at politics (a debatable proposition right now), this could be an opportunity. Bill Clinton used class-size and after-school funding to hammer Republicans. This is an even more target-rich environment—start with special education, student aid, and funding in red states. But you need a clear, crisp, and singular message.

In responding, Democrats should reflect on how we got here—ESSA, student loans, administrative overreach, toxic activism. But they also have a real opportunity, if they take it with a smart, aggressive, reform-driven approach. Don’t defend the Department’s status quo. And please don’t go with “no daylight, kid”—that’s not this political moment. We need daylight—Reykjavík in June levels of daylight. Make the case that this is the wrong way to reform federal education policy and that it’ll make things worse when we can least afford it. Then offer better ideas. It’s possible. If you’re of a certain age, you may recall when Democrats were pretty good on this issue.

Ultimately, this is a squandered opportunity. We’ve seen declining achievement over the past decade, turbocharged by Covid and school closures. Parents feel increasingly alienated from schools. The future of public education is in flux as the system unbundles. The country faces real economic and competitive pressure to improve education and training. These are real issues.

Presidential time and attention are finite and valuable. The President could offer a vision for progress. He could propose ideas with 75% support among parents and the public—quality, accountability, bureaucratic reform, merit, normalcy, resources, and choice. That would be a cross-partisan agenda. It would support his own broader goals—competitiveness, industrial policy, national security. Politically, Trump could put Democrats on defense with a serious agenda that sparks a national reckoning on school improvement. Instead, we get this—the continuation of a tired, decades-long fight over one federal agency with some culture wars sprinkled over like jimmies for MAGA.

It makes it too easy for everyone. More than anything, this is a missed chance to get serious about schools. All this energy could be used more productively. But instead, we get theater—Trump’s undeniable true specialty.