Scout’s Analysis: Assessing the top of the 2025 NHL Draft

The annual NHL Draft Lottery is set for Monday night and will determine the order of the first 16 selections ahead of the festivities in June. Teams that failed to make the playoffs are anxiously awaiting the results so they can best prepare a strategy that targets a player, or players, they are keen on adding to their organization. 

Although the 2025 draft class isn’t as strong as some of the more recent ones, it still offers rebuilding teams — and those that have done more homework than others — an opportunity to add some very valuable pieces to their organization. 

Every NHL team implements its own strategy when it comes to how they want to build out their organizational depth. Some GMs have their scouting staffs prioritize adding size, physicality, and power to their lineups. Others might be in search of a power-play quarterback who transitions the puck offensively without sacrificing defensive detail. At the end of the day, whether it’s a goalie, forward, or a defenceman, the general rule of drafting the “best available” prospect is the strategy most teams follow. 

With that in mind, here’s a look at the value I’m placing on some of the top prospects ahead of tonight’s lottery, and some additional names to keep a close eye on heading towards the June 27-28 draft in June.

Why Matthew Schaefer is still No. 1

Erie Otters defenceman Matthew Schaefer remains No. 1 on my list despite the fact he has been out of action since suffering a broken collarbone at the world juniors in Ottawa at Christmas. Schaefer only played 17 games for the Otters in 2024-25, after also missing time at the start of the season while battling mononucleosis, but his body of work leading into this season and the impact he had when he was healthy wins out for me. 

Schaefer’s a complete player who is deployed in all situations. In his final 10-game segment with the Otters, preceding his time with Team Canada at the WJC, he averaged over 29 minutes per game, produced 4G-10A and was a plus-13. He plays the game fast and never shies away from contact. 

Schaefer projects as a top pairing defenceman at the NHL level. The team that wins the lottery shouldn’t overthink things. He’s the top player in the draft class and a prospect who will assist with expediting a rebuild. 

Who are the contenders to go second overall?

Anton Frondell, C, 6-foot-1, 198 pounds, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)

I’m debating with myself where to slot Frondell on my next draft ranking. I’ve been closely monitoring his progress for the past couple of seasons and his contribution playing at the pro level this year in Sweden was impressive (11G-14A in 29GP). It took some time for him to get going after dealing with injuries early in the year, but once established he played to his strengths offensively and was generally trustworthy defensively.

His ice time, until the very end of the season, ranged from 11-15 minutes per game and all of it came at even strength and on the power play. It’s also worth noting Frondell played the wing with Djurgardens instead of his primary centre position. 

I need some time to further digest what happened with Frondell in his final three games with Djurgardens and at the recently completed U18 World Championship in Texas. His ice time fell off a cliff at Djurgardens and he averaged only three minutes per game in those contests. At the U18’s Frondell played centre, but only produced 1G-2A. One thing that did stand out for me at the U18s was the fact the coaching staff didn’t deploy Frondell on the weak side flank on their power play. That’s curious considering how dangerous he is in the role:

The summary of Frondell’s year includes a wide range of overall impact, but his body of work and potential upside as a top line NHL centre, or winger, is undeniable. He’s arguably the best shooter from the flank in the entire draft class and a player I can see a team stepping up to select as high as second overall. 

Michael Misa, C, 6-foot-1, 184 pounds, Saginaw Spirit (OHL)

Misa was dealing with an injury at the end of the year that ended up holding him out of the U18 worlds, but his season in Saginaw could not have gone better overall. Misa led the entire Canadian Hockey League with 134 points (62G-72A) in the regular season. 

Misa played the wing his first two seasons in the OHL before moving to centre full-time this year. I’ve said it several times, but I’ll mention it again: The move to centre agreed with Misa. He was a consistent threat off the rush with his speed and much more aggressive directing pucks on net. Like Frondell, teams recognize Misa can play two forward positions, which increases his value and definitely slots him as a contender to go second overall.

James Hagens, C, 5-foot-11, 177 pounds, Boston College (NCAA)

Hagens was the top ranked prospect in pre-season rankings, but now finds himself as a possible target for the second slot. On balance, his season was solid but I did feel he faded a bit down the stretch. Having said that, Hagens ended the year with 37 points in 37 college games and contributed 5G-4A at the WJC representing the gold medal champions. 

Hagens is the kind of player who’s always in motion. When he has the puck on his stick in transition he attacks with purpose and he’s blessed with an abundance of creativity and offensive hockey sense. I project Hagens as a top line NHL forward who will be deployed at even strength and the power play. 

Playing against older opponents at the college level appeared to wear him out physically by the end of the season. In time he will add more strength to his frame which will result in even more impact in relation to his elite offensive element.

WHO ARE SOME PLAYERS ON THE RISE?

Caleb Desnoyers, C, 6-foot-2, 178 pounds, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL)

Desnoyers could be the player who disrupts the top of the draft class. He averages 19 minutes of ice time with the bulk of it coming at even strength and the power play. Desnoyers produced 35G-49A in the regular season and has taken his game to another level in the QMJHL playoffs. Moncton has already punched its ticket to the QMJHL league final and Desnoyers leads all playoff scorers with 9G-15A in 13 games played. 

I project Desnoyers as a top six centre at the NHL level, but he could end up as a top line player as he matures. What I really appreciate about his game is the fact he elevates his overall impact in high leverage games. I currently have Desnoyers ranked fifth on my list, but I can see a scenario where a team calls his name ahead of that slot. 

Brady Martin, C, 6-feet, 178 pounds, Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds (OHL)

I had Martin 12^th in my last ranking but after the impact he had last week in Texas at the U18s, I’m taking a longer look at where he fits in this class. 

Martin finished the tournament as the second-leading scorer for Team Canada with 3G-8A in seven games. He was deployed in all situations and played with the kind of relentless compete organizations value in hard games. In addition to his offensive upside, Martin is the most physical forward available to lottery teams. He never shies away from contact and makes life miserable on opponents along the wall and in front of the net.

Sascha Boumedienne, D, 6-foot-1, 175 pounds, Boston University (NCAA) 

Boumedienne was outstanding for Team Sweden last week at the U18s. He was deployed in all situations and averaged over 24 minutes per game. Boumedienne used his high-end skating ability to win races to pucks, quickly close on opponents to kill plays, and escape pressure to lead the rush or join as an extra layer on offence. He ended the event as the second-leading point producer (1G-13A) in the tournament. 

I had Boumedienne ranked in the second round before the U18s, but his last impression was by far the most positive one. He’s on the rise. I can now see a lottery team stepping up to select the two-way defenceman in the top 16.

Closing Thoughts 

The depth of this draft class might not be as elite as previous ones, but it still provides an opportunity for teams with multiple picks to get creative. Teams like the Montreal Canadiens (nine picks in the first four rounds) or Philadelphia Flyers (three first- and four second-round slots) might look to move up in the draft to target prospects they value or trade out some of their draft capital to acquire more picks in future draft cycles. 

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