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Quick Shifts: Why Maple Leafs’ Stanley Cup contender status is in doubt
The Toronto Maple Leafs believe themselves a Stanley Cup contender, yet their past three real tests all ended in a regulation loss. Luke Fox explains what this last stretch has to say about their chances.
A quick mix of the things we gleaned from the week of hockey, serious and less so, and rolling four lines deep. Used to write this blog on foolscap. Now? Everything’s computer.
1. The concerning thing in Leafland is that the box scores have been prettier than the visuals.
In slipping from first to second in a hotly contested Atlantic Division — and now inching closer to third and a Game 1 on the road — the Toronto Maple Leafs have squeaked by on excellent goaltending performances and some timely scoring.
But when was the last time an observer walked away from a Leafs game thinking, Man, that was a dominant, full-60-minute effort.
Toronto believes itself a Stanley Cup contender, yet its past three real tests — in Vegas, in Colorado, and at home to Florida Thursday — all ended in a regulation loss. Combined score in those games: 15-8.
Previously superb at holding leads, the Leafs have earned leads in five of their past six games — only to let them slip into losses, or salvage them with a nail-biting overtime or shootout win.
Since Feb. 1, the Maple Leafs have a 44.1 per cent shot share at 5-on-5, according to NaturalStatTrick.com. Only the rebuilding Blackhawks are worse in that span.
Sure, the recent injury to Chris Tanev hasn’t helped, and new faces Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton should improve once they get acclimatized to the group and Craig Berube’s systems.
But the Leafs — who are getting ample production from Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Matthew Knies — rank 11th in goals per game, 17th in goals allowed per game, 16th in penalty kill. Their goal differential is tied for 11th.
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Berube has been harping on cleaning up mistakes, yet sloppy line changes, bad penalties and a looser rush defence should be cause for worry.
“We gotta push through this and get better,” Berube said Thursday.
Toronto is relatively healthy and still has some head-to-head matches against Florida and Tampa to reclaim No. 1 status. Tanev is back, and captain Auston Matthews surely has some better hockey in him.
There is hope.
But there is also growing concern that this might only be a good hockey team.
Not a great one.
2. Maybe we’re reading too much into this, but there is a sense of assuredness that emanates from coaches who have already lifted the Stanley Cup over their heads.
Mike Sullivan has it. Jared Bednar has it. So does Bruce Cassidy and Paul Maurice and Craig Berube and John Tortorella and you get the point.
Asked if winning a Cup changed him, Jon Cooper responds:
“I hope it didn’t change me. Like, I hope I’m the same guy who was in Game 1 coaching this league, and the same guy at Game 900. But inside, there’s such a sense of relief when you win the Stanley Cup.
“And I know that’s not a glamorous word, but it truly is. And do I look at the world differently? No. But I’m less stressed, I’ll tell you that. Ask anybody that wins the Cup for the first time: You’re in a club that nobody talks about, but it’s really exclusive. And, you know, there’s a calmness that comes with that. But I hope I haven’t changed.”
3. The three longest playoff droughts all belong to the Atlantic Division: Buffalo (13 seasons), Detroit (eight), and Ottawa (seven).
The Sabres are cranking theirs to 14, and Detroit is fading fast.
Ottawa, however, now has a 93.6 per cent chance of ending the misery and finally giving Brady Tkachuk a taste of the postseason, according to MoneyPuck.com.
We love the buy-low additions of Dylan Cozens and Fabian Zetterlund. (Why the offence-starved Sharks let a 20-goal threat go is a head-scratcher.)
We also love how GM Steve Staios framed Tkachuk’s disappointment by the Josh Norris trade.
“You see our captain,” Staios said on deadline day. “And his teammates, they care about each other. And (we) can’t win consistently in this league and get to where we want to get to without that.
“The culture we’re building here is exactly what you saw today. Our players care about each other; the manager cares about the players, and the coaches. You may have noticed it’s different here — and that’s something to be proud of.”
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4. The flipside of the Senators’ surge is the white-flag-waving Boston Bruins’ submission.
The odds of the sell-the-farm Bruins rallying to make the postseason have dwindled to 3.9 per cent.
The Bruins and Maple Leafs went into this season tied with the longest active playoff streak (eight seasons).
Barring a miracle, the Leafs will stand alone in April with a nine-season streak.
The Avalanche and Lightning will have no issue extending their second-best streaks to eight straight postseasons.
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5. Colorado’s Bednar says that “on paper” his post-deadline roster is the best he’s had to work with since 2022. And that group did OK.
Already overhauling his goalie tandem midseason, GM Chris MacFarland traded superstar Mikko Rantanen and added Martin Necas, Brock Nelson, Charlie Coyle, Ryan Lindgren, Jack Drury and Erik Johnson.
The speedy Avs have won seven of eight, their only loss coming in a Minnesota shootout.
The new guys are transitioning as well as Colorado does after a change of possession.
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“When you meet with some of those veteran guys on system stuff… you can tell just from talking to them right away, (they understand),” Bednar says. “They’ve played for different coaches. They’ve played under different systems. They’re picking it up quick based on our conversations; they’re asking the right questions. So, I expect them to come into our lineup and provide similar things that they provided their last team — which is why they’re here, right?”
Of all the deadline shockers, Bednar says he is most taken aback that his boss landed two bona fide NHL centremen in Nelson and Coyle. He can’t overstate the importance of strength and size up the middle.
“I was surprised we got the guys we got,” Bednar says. “C-Mac did a really nice job. I can’t say I wasn’t expecting that. But to get those two guys down the middle of the ice, those are significant moves.”
6. The Jets grip an insurmountable 10-point lead in the Central, so we have a month to lick of chops in anticipation of a Stars-Avalanche first-round deathmatch. And that spicy Rantanen (and, for you old heads, Matt Duchene) revenge narrative.
“I’m happy for Mikko that he got signed and got a deal in a place where he obviously wanted to go, or a destination where he felt comfortable, to sign an eight-year deal,” Bednar says.
“He’s a great teammate. He’s been a great player for us, and we were able to win together, and I’ll never forget that. But it’s going to be tough playing Dallas. It makes Dallas better right away. We feel we’ve gotten better. It’s going to be interesting. It would be a lot of fun playing against those guys if we’re able to get there.
“Yeah, I wish him the best there — just not against us.”
7. I’ve been tempted to categorize Leon Draisaitl as Edmonton’s version of Evgeni Malkin — that European talent who will go down as a top-100 player of all-time but can never be more than a 2C on his own team.
Sure, he’s got a Hart Trophy on the shelf, but everyone knows he’s the second-best player in town, forever overshadowed by a generational talent.
Well, Draisaitl just recorded his sixth 100-point season and fourth in row. (He’d have seven in a row if it weren’t for the pandemic.) His next goal will be his 50th, giving him four 50-goal campaigns.
The only other non–North Americans to register four consecutive 100-point campaigns are Peter Stastny and Jari Kuri — in the high-flying ’80s, when the butterfly was only something you could see in a conservatory.
Malkin, 38, has only reached 100 points thrice and 50 goals once.
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8. How thin is this summer’s free agent market for goaltenders?
Well, now that the Vegas Golden Knights locked up Cup winner Adin Hill for six more seasons, the impending UFA with the most wins is… Hill’s backup, Ilya Samsonov (15).
Typically, the men in pads partake in a mad scramble of musical chairs on July 1. That is certainly not shaping up to be the case this summer, as most clubs have been content to recommit to the guys they’ve got.
Hill joined a long list of goaltenders who signed extensions in-season instead of testing the waters. Igor Shesterkin, Linus Ullmark, Joey Daccord, Mackenzie Blackwood, Karel Vejmelka, Kevin Lankinen, Charlie Lindgren, and Jonathan Quick come to mind.
Don’t want to roll the dice on an inconsistent (but wonderfully entertaining) Samsonov (.889)?
-
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The Fan Hockey Show
Sportsnet’s Matt Marchese and former Los Angeles Kings executive Mike Futa take you around the league on Sportsnet 590 The FAN’s national hockey show, airing live across the country daily from noon-2 p.m. ET.
May I interest you in a David Rittich (.886)? An injury-prone Frederik Andersen (.911)? A humbled Alexandar Georgiev (.875)? Trying to talk Marc-Andre Fleury out of retirement?
Perhaps Jake Allen (.911) gets a bigger deal in this depressed market. Maybe Alex Lyon (.900) finds more opportunity. Or lifelong Duck John Gibson (.910) — still under contract in 2025-26 — finally does get traded.
9. Despite its lack of historical roots and relatively small fan base, hockey is an instant hit in Salt Lake City (population: 209,593).
Flying out the morning after the Leafs’ raucous shootout win over the Hockey Club, I saw a young girl glued to her iPad at the gate. She was watching Monday’s highlights.
Banners and ads for Utah HC are easily spotted around the mountain town. The “expansion” team’s baby-blue gear is already the uniform of many locals, even when it’s not game day. (This, sadly, was decidedly not the case for the Coyotes around the home of the Sun Devils.)
And the barn is packed and rocking. So, what if 6,000 seats don’t actually offer a view of both goals (yet… they’re working on it)?
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The fans are passionate and appositive, and the elevated basketball seating gives opponents the illusion that the crowd in the lower bowl is literally on top of them.
The energy at Delta Center is more Vegas than Seattle, in terms of volume and visceral engagement. Any beer-holding fan who pops up on the Jumbotron best get to chugggin’ if she doesn’t want to get booed.
No wonder good players have been quick to re-sign already.
Hey, if the juggernaut NFL can thrive in Green Bay (population: 105,744), why can’t the NHL keep success rolling in Utah? The momentum is palpable.
“Not really anything you can do about it now,” says Auston Matthews, whose love for hockey sprung from the Coyotes.
“It is what it is, but it’s also kind of exciting to be in a fresh market and get to experience a new city. It seems like it’s been going pretty well for them here with the fan base and everything. It’s exciting for the league.”
10. Superman puncher Simon Benoit is such a breath of fresh air for the Maple Leafs, who are generally all business in front of the cameras.
The French-Canadian takes his job seriously — launching hits, willing to fight, giving his all — but not himself.
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During Monday’s shirtless postgame scrum, after Benoit had posed for one of the most legendary hockey photos of all-time, a Leafs staffer accidentally turned on some dance beats that began pumping out of the team’s portable speaker.
Benoit started grooving to the music mid-answer, then kept going.
He was self-deprecating about his first goal of the season, shrugged off the fact he had to snap his thumb into place after fighting Michael Kesselring, and freely admitted he had no clue if he’d lost or gained an hour due to daylight savings.
When the mini Q&A wrapped, a smiling Joseph Woll asked Benoit how his press conference went. Pretty good.
“Did you swear this time?” Woll followed.
11. The hard-luck New Jersey Devils have won three straight, but it’s getting more and more difficult to see Sheldon Keefe’s squad lasting past the first round.
Jack Hughes is done for the season. Their deadline was quiet. And now defencemen Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler have been ruled out for the remainder of the regular season, and their postseason availability is in doubt.
Jersey’s likely Round 1 opponent, Carolina, has won six games in a row and has been victorious in its first postseason series six years running.
Jersey is in tough here.
12. Cale Makar is on a level generally referred to as next.
