NHL Top 16 Mock Draft: Who will Islanders take after surprise lottery win?

Since 2018, we’ve had a pretty good indication of who would be selected first overall in the NHL Draft, regardless of which team won the draft lottery. Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Hughes, Alexis Lafreniere and Owen Power were all consensus No. 1 picks.

The one exception in the last seven years was the 2022 draft. Most of that year, centre Shane Wright held the No. 1 position, but that thought slowly changed as we got closer to the draft. Then, when it came to draft day, the Montreal Canadiens bucked the trend and took winger Juraj Slafkovsky. Wright didn’t end up going until the fourth overall pick to Seattle.

The draft lottery held true to form a year ago, when the San Jose Sharks had the best odds of picking first overall and indeed won the lottery, selecting Macklin Celebrini. But this time, the New York Islanders surged up 10 spots to claim the No. 1 pick while Utah also moved up 10 spots, from 14 to four, to really shake up the draft order.

Defenceman Matthew Schaefer of the OHL’s Erie Otters is a strong candidate to go first overall despite injuries derailing his season. But he has some competition at the top of the class. Michael Misa scored 62 goals and 134 points for the OHL’s Saginaw Spirit after moving from wing to centre this season, so he will be in the mix. A year ago, it was James Hagens who was the projected top pick. The Boston College freshman remains in contention after he was a point-per-game scorer as one of the NCAA’s youngest players, but he is slightly undersized. I do believe players like Anton Frondell and Caleb Desnoyers will garner some consideration, too, making this draft a multi-player race to No. 1.

Based on tonight’s drawing, here’s our first edition of the post-lottery mock draft.  

No. 1: New York Islanders – Matthew Schaefer, D, 6-foot-2, 183 pounds, Erie Otters (OHL)

With Cal Ritchie and Danny Nelson down the middle and scoring winger Cole Eiserman also in the fold, Matthew Schaefer is a perfect fit to add to the blue line for the Islanders.

No. 2: San Jose Sharks – Michael Misa, C, 6-foot-1, 184 pounds, Saginaw Spirit (OHL) 

Misa transitioned back to centre after spending his first two years as a winger in Saginaw. He exploded for 62 goals and 134 points while captaining a younger Spirit team one year removed from winning the Memorial Cup. Oh, and by the way, he spent a lot of time playing with Ivan Chernyshov, another Sharks prospect with the Spirit.

No. 3: Chicago Blackhawks – Caleb Desnoyers, C, 6-foot-2, 178 pounds, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL)

The Blackhawks could use more up front, and Desnoyers brings a high-compete and high-skill game to the table. He projects to fill out his six-foot-two frame and should play at 200 pounds or more. 

No. 4: Utah Hockey Club – Porter Martone, RW, 6-foot-3, 208 pounds, Brampton Steelheads (OHL)

The rich get richer. Up 10 spots, the Hockey Club actually won the second lottery but were limited in their climb. Once an OHLer, GM Bill Armstrong goes back to that league to select Brampton Steelheads right winger Porter Martone. Armstrong is not shy about his desire for big, physical players and Martone fits that bill to a tee.

No. 5: Nashville Predators – James Hagens, C, 5-foot-11, 177 pounds, Boston College (NCAA) 

The Predators have always done a great job drafting defencemen, but this is a little too high to take the next best D off the board, so Barry Trotz goes to Boston College to get James Hagens, with additional knowledge from prospect Teddy Stiga, who has spent the last three years with Hagens.

No. 6: Philadelphia Flyers – Anton Frondell, C, 6-foot-1, 198 pounds, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)

Frondell plays a low-key all-around game. He’s also performed at a high level, playing second division pro in Sweden. Frondell does just about everything well, and while he didn’t have a great U18, he has shown he can play successfully with older, faster players.

No. 7: Boston Bruins – Jackson Smith, D, 6-foot-3, 195 pounds, Tri-City Americans (WHL)

This might be a little aggressive for this spot, but when looking at Boston’s pool, they do have a decent set of forwards on the way. That depth in their system is not evident on the blue line, so they take a risk with Smith, who plays a two-way game with great skating ability and the potential to add to his offensive profile.

No. 8: Seattle Kraken – Radim Mrtka, D, 6-foot-6, 207 pounds, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)

Needing help on D, new GM Jason Botterill will have seen the monstrous Mrtka play live and in-person on a number of occasions since the defenceman relocated to WHL Seattle in January from the Czech pro ranks.

No. 9: Buffalo Sabres – Jake O’Brien, C, 6-foot-2, 172 pounds, Brantford Bulldogs (OHL)

Former Sabres defenceman Jay McKee coaches O’Brien in the OHL and raves about the centre’s elite-level creativity in his game. He has plenty of room to pack on weight and muscle, but his playmaking will definitely help those around him once he arrives

No. 10: Anaheim Ducks – Carter Bear, LW, 6-feet, 179 pounds, Everett Silvertips (WHL)

With the development of Jackson LaCombe, Olen Zellweger and Pavel Mintyukov on the blue line, and more coming, the Ducks go back to adding to their forward group with the speedy and skilled Bear. A mid-season injury left him out of the playoffs, but Bear did enough to prove he belongs here.

No. 11: Pittsburgh Penguins – Brady Martin, C, 6-feet, 178 pounds, Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds (OHL)

The Sault Ste. Marie ties are still strong for Penguins GM Kyle Dubas and Martin is coming off a brilliant U18 gold-medal performance. His average size also fits the profile of what Dubas and Co. have done previously.

No. 12: New York Rangers – Logan Hensler, D, 6-foot-2, 192 pounds, Wisconsin (NCAA)

Hensler showed out in the second half of the season after a slow start at Wisconsin as one of the younger players in NCAA hockey. He has good size, reach and is extremely mobile.

No. 13: Detroit Red Wings – Victor Eklund, LW, 5-foot-11, 161 pounds, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)

Another skilled Swede in a long line of Detroit Red Wings. Despite being on the smaller side, Eklund is not deterred. He is well aware of where the best ice is and uses deft skill and a tight turning radius to create even more space for himself and teammates. 

No. 14: Columbus Blue Jackets – Kashawn Aitcheson, D, 6-foot-2, 196 pounds, Barrie Colts (OHL)

Aitcheson had an unbelievable year in Barrie, where he exceeded all expectations on the offensive front, improving from eight goals and 39 points last year to 26 goals and 59 points in the same amount of games. He brings old-school toughness and swagger that will endear him to teammates.

No. 15: Vancouver Canucks – Braeden Cootes, C, 6-foot, 183 pounds, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)

Cootes is coming fresh off an amazing U18 gold medal performance and has slowly and methodically risen in the ranks. He’s always in the fight and has proven his skill is on point as well. This would be a safe pick for a team that’s had a lot of drama lately. 

No. 16: Montreal Canadiens – Jack Nesbitt, C, 6-foot-4, 185 pounds, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)
Pick acquired from Calgary Flames

The Canadiens are looking to add size, and with Kirby Dach’s challenge to rebound from yet another tough injury, Nesbitt will fill that void, although not immediately. Nesbitt plays with grit, determination and has plenty of details in his game to serve both ends of the ice.

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