NHL Draft Lottery power rankings: Which team is most deserving of No. 1 pick?
Monday night’s NHL Draft Lottery is going to have Stanley Cup-level stakes for the teams that did not make the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Instead of listing the teams below according to the likelihood they walk on stage first, we’re ordering them based on who we think merits a first-overall lottery hit.
Monday night’s NHL Draft Lottery is going to have Stanley Cup-level stakes for the teams that did not make the playoffs.
This is the 30-year anniversary of the league conducting a lottery for the first pick and the format has changed numerous times in that span. If you need a refresher on the current procedure, you’re surely not alone.
The lottery is actually comprised of two draws; one to determine the top pick and a second to determine who picks No. 2.
Teams are only eligible to move up 10 slots in either draw, so five squads that have lottery balls cannot vault all the way up to No. 1. Those clubs are Detroit (2.5 per cent chance to move up to No. 2); Columbus (2 per cent of moving to No. 3); Utah Hockey Club (1.5 per cent of moving to No. 4); Vancouver (0.5 per cent of moving to No. 5) and Calgary (0.5 per cent of moving to No. 6).
If Calgary does not hit on its minuscule chance of moving up 10 spots, the Flames will forfeit the 16th overall selection to Montreal.
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Watch NHL Draft Lottery on Sportsnet
Which team will get the first pick in the NHL Draft? Find out during the new live draw at the draft lottery. Watch it on Monday at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT on Sportsnet or Sportsnet+.
Eliminating that handful of franchises from first-overall consideration leaves 11 remaining clubs with at least a Lloyd Christmas-style shot — “So you’re saying there’s a chance!” — at drafting first overall in 2025.
For the first time ever, this year the drawing of the lottery balls will be conducted live on air. It’s all going down at the NHL Network studio in Secaucus, N.J., and, of course, you can catch all the drama on Sportsnet starting at 7 p.m. ET.
While the only number that really matters is what each team’s odds are to draft No. 1, we wanted to do something more fun than just present math on the eve of this big night.
So, instead of listing the teams below according to the likelihood they walk on stage first, we’re ordering them based on who we think merits a first-overall lottery hit. Think of it as a version of Moneypuck’s “Deserve to win O’meter” for NHL games, only quite nebulous and unscientific.
Does the team deserve a bounce? Have they been making hard, smart decisions in pursuit of a rebuild or retool? How’s their recent lottery luck been and what’s the long-term history of them getting the top pick? Would it just be flat-out fun if they won?
All the above will be considered below, as we rank — from most deserving to least — the 11 squads hoping to say the sentence, “With the first pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, we’re proud to select …”
Regular season finish: 29th overall
Odds of picking first: 9.5 per cent
The Flyers have never picked first overall in the NHL Entry Draft era, which began in 1979. (Prior to that, the event was called the NHL Amateur Draft and did not allow teams to select players who had previously played pro hockey on circuits like the World Hockey Association.)
The only top pick Philly has ever had came 51 years ago in 1974, when it selected Mel Bridgman.
In 2007, the Flyers had the best odds to pick first overall and got jumped by the team with the fifth-best chance, the Blackhawks. Three years later, the player Chicago took first in ’07 — Patrick Kane — scored the Cup-clinching overtime goal that gave the Hawks a 2010 series win over the Flyers.
In 2017, the Flyers had the incredibly good fortune of moving up 10 spots to No. 2. However, Philly opted for centre Nolan Patrick over defenceman Miro Heiskanen and, sadly, Patrick was forced into very early retirement a few years ago because of ongoing concussion issues.
The Flyers deserve credit for making tough, future-focused decisions as part of their rebuild over the past couple of years while playing very competitive hockey for a good portion of the schedule. In 2023, they rolled the dice on Matvei Michkov at seventh overall and, surprisingly, he was in the lineup one year after he was drafted as opposed to the three (or more) people assumed it would take.
Getting Michkov early was a good break, and this signature NHL franchise deserves another big one to help get back on its feet.
Regular season finish: 28th overall
Odds of picking first: 8.5 per cent
The Bruins have been one of the most competitive squads going for the past 15 years. Even when their top two centres — Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci — retired in the same summer, the Bruins fought off an inevitable dip, made the 2024 playoffs and even won a round.
How about a nice reward for all that hard work?
Also, credit GM Don Sweeney for leaning into a retool ahead of the trade deadline when he knew the season was slipping away. If Boston could add a first-overall pick to a core that includes under-30 guys like David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy and Jeremy Swayman, the B’s could be very competitive again soon.
Boston has not picked first overall since taking Joe Thornton in 1997.
Regular season finish: 25th overall
Odds of picking first: 6 per cent
Twenty years later, it still stings that the Ducks were one of the final two teams in the mix for Sidney Crosby, but wound up picking second overall coming out of the lost NHL season in the summer of 2005.
Anaheim, which began play in 1993-94, has still never had the pleasure of picking first overall. While the Ducks have selected in the top three in three of the past four drafts, it feels like Anaheim deserves this bounce.
The Ducks took a big leap this season — from 59 points to 80 — and adding one more weapon to the young core would make them a really dangerous outfit.
Regular season finish: 27th overall
Odds of picking first: 7.5 per cent
On one hand, it would be fair to question whether a franchise that just gassed a coach after one year on the job deserves a break.
Still, this young fanbase is due a legitimate bolt of excitement. Matty Beniers — the first draft pick in team history, second overall in 2021 — won rookie of the year in 2023, but has not made good on that promise in the past couple of seasons. Shane Wright, who fell in Seattle’s lap at No. 4 in 2022, has shown promise, but isn’t a bring-you-out-of-your-seat player.
The Kraken faithful, who’ve now watched four seasons of hockey, could use a zap of electricity.
Regular season finish: 32nd overall
Odds of picking first: 25.5 per cent
It might be odd to have the team that just picked first last June this high, but the Sharks — led by GM Mike Grier — have been doing a great job with this rebuild and it would be fun to see them supercharge it. Macklin Celebrini was also just the first No. 1 overall pick in Sharks history.
San Jose spent most of this century being a very competitive club, making the playoffs every season but one between 2004 and 2019. The Sharks never did get their hands on the Cup during that time, though, and another stud at the top of the draft board could help change that.
Reminder: As the team that finished last overall, the Sharks don’t actually have to win the first draw to snag the top pick. If the lottery is won by any one of the five teams that cannot move all the way up to No. 1, San Jose would pick first. So, while the Sharks have an 18.5 per cent chance to win the first draw, it has a 25.5 per cent chance of selecting first overall.
Last year, the Sharks actually won both the first and second draws, so the league conducted a re-draw for the second pick, which the Blackhawks won.
Regular season finish: 30th overall
Odds of picking first: 11.5 per cent
I contemplated having Nashville lower on this list as punishment for spending like drunken sailors last summer, then immediately getting shipwrecked.
Do they deserve to be rescued from that?
That said, how many fans of sports teams in general wish their team would open the wallet up a bit more? And while the spending spree conducted by GM Barry Trotz was a huge break from what we were used to seeing under his predecessor, David Poile, you do kind of have to give Trotz credit for shooting his shot.
Of course, there’s also the fact that the Preds were the model of consistency for years under Poile. Nashville has never picked first overall and has actually only selected in the top five twice (David Legwand, second in 1998, and Seth Jones, fourth in 2013).
A Preds win is definitely something we could get down with.
Regular season finish: 23rd overall
Odds of picking first: 3.5 per cent
The Isles were stubborn about taking a step back under former GM Lou Lamoriello, but new leadership is coming on board after the franchise parted ways with the hockey legend.
Fresh start, first pick?
The Isles’ most recent No. 1 pick, John Tavares, left as a free agent in the summer of 2018. Impressively, the club managed to stay very competitive — making the playoffs’ final four in back-to-back years — in the aftermath of Tavares leaving.
New York hasn’t won a playoff round since 2021, though, and has now missed the big dance in two of the past four years. This is a stale club in need of some juice.
Lamoriello left a nice present in the form of prospect Calum Ritchie, acquired from the Avalanche when the Isles traded Brock Nelson ahead of the deadline.
Putting a top pick in the pipeline with Ritchie would officially signal some real excitement on Long Island.
Regular season finish: 24th overall
Odds of picking first: 5 per cent
I’d hear the case for having Pittsburgh higher here, but there is also something fundamentally flawed about the way this club has been conducting business the past couple years.
Doing an actual rebuild has never been broached and if this is their idea of a retool, I’ve got bad news for you.
Also, as noted above, the Penguins still have a guy wearing No. 87 in their lineup who arrived via an all-time lottery win in 2005 and helped deliver three Stanley Cups.
Still, there would be some fun symmetry to Crosby playing out his final seasons with a “next one” in Steeltown.
Regular season finish: 31st overall
Odds of picking first: 13.5 per cent
The Hawks just had a lottery win in 2023 that vaulted them up to No. 1 with the third-best odds to do so. And, make no mistake, landing Connor Bedard that year remains a huge win for this franchise.
Six years ago, in 2019, the Hawks moved all the way up to No. 3 (taking Kirby Dach) despite finishing 20th in the NHL. It sure feels like Chicago has already cashed its lottery luck in the past handful of springs.
10. Buffalo Sabres
Regular season finish: 26th overall
Odds of picking first: 6.5 per cent
The Sabres have picked first twice in the past six years, taking Rasmus Dahlin in 2018 and Owen Power in ’21. Unless you think they’re still owed for not getting Connor McDavid in 2015 when they had a 20 per cent chance of doing so, let’s agree the Sabres have done their fair share of picking high.
They’ve also done more than their fair share of losing, missing the playoffs for 14 straight seasons now.
Do Western New York’s fans deserve better? Absolutely. But it just feels wrong to reward an organization that’s done so much losing.
11. New York Rangers
Regular season finish: 22nd overall
Odds of picking first: 3 per cent
The Rangers have a call to make here because they have to give either this year’s first or their 2026 first to Pittsburgh. It’s all due to the series of transactions that saw the Rangers send a conditional first to Vancouver for J.T. Miller, only to have the Canucks shoot the conditional pick Pittsburgh’s way in the deal for Marcus Pettersson.
Of course, if the Rangers win the lottery, the decision to send next year’s pick becomes a no-brainer.
The Rangers jumped four teams to pick No. 2 in 2019 and leapt all the way to No. 1 the next season, when the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 campaign prompted the league to tweak the lottery format. A Blueshirts squad that went 37-28-5 in 2019-20 wound up picking Alexis Lafreniere first overall.
Even if they hadn’t used up some serious lottery luck in those years, it doesn’t feel like this squad — coming off a drama-filled, incredibly disappointing season — deserves any good fortune this time out.
