MLB Mailbag: Skenes, Bregman, Nationals, Alcantara

This week's mailbag gets into how long Paul Skenes will stay a Pirate, Alex Bregman opt-out scenarios, the NL East favorite, extensions for young Nationals players, potential Sandy Alcantara trade returns, the automated ball-strike system, and much more.

John asks:

I figure the Bucs' cheap owner will trade Skenes before his first arbitration year because he will never pay that kind of salary. If I'm right, when is his final year in Pittsburgh?

After the 2026 season, Paul Skenes will have three years of Major League service time and will be eligible for arbitration.  Barring an extension, Skenes and the Pirates will go through the arbitration process early in 2027, and his salary will take a huge leap that season.

How much of a leap is hard to predict not knowing what numbers Skenes will put up in 2025 and '26.  Remarkably, the first-time arbitration record for a starting pitcher remains Dallas Keuchel's $7.25MM from 2015, though prior to that Tim Lincecum at least topped $10MM as the midpoint between his $13MM filing figure and the Giants' $8MM.  Clayton Kershaw had a midpoint of $8.25MM once as well.  But the first-time starting pitcher arbitration market is not one that moves easily.

Arbitration eligible players are tendered contracts because they offer surplus value to their teams, star players included.  Corbin Burnes, for example, won the NL Cy Young award in 2021 and was paid $6.55MM in 2022, $10.01MM in '23 (after losing a hearing to the Brewers), and $15,637,500 in '24.

A healthy Skenes should be able to top Burnes' $32.2MM in total arbitration earnings, but even $45MM for that three-year period might represent a single season of what he could earn in free agency.

Say Skenes is a 6-WAR type player.  Bob Nutting has owned the Pirates since January 2007; what has happened with this team and similar players since he took over?

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