MLB betting preview: Which division will be most competitive?

If you take the Los Angeles Dodgers out of the picture — and the other teams in the National League West would very much love you to do so — the new Major League Baseball season holds the promise of several dramatic division races. 

Let’s look at the divisions in order of competitiveness.

American League Central

Yes, yes, the Chicago White Sox are likely to be formally eliminated from playoff contention by the end of… this sentence. But the rest of the division is a true toss-up. 

The BetMGM sportsbook currently has Minnesota as a +210 favourite, but the Twins have a front-loaded rotation and a pair of chronically-injured stars (Royce Lewis is already on the Injured List, which is where Byron Buxton usually spends large swaths of his season). 

Detroit, which showed big gains last year, is the second pick (+250) at BetMGM. But the two teams listed at +300 — Cleveland and Kansas City — may prove to be a bigger threat to win the Central. 

The Guardians have a lockdown closer (Emmanuel Clase), a perennial MVP threat (Jose Ramirez), and an intriguing one-two punch on the mound (pitchers Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams). Meanwhile, the Royals are coming off a season in which they won 86 games after capturing only 56 in 2023. Bobby Witt Jr. is a full-on superstar. And their starting rotation — anchored by Cole Ragans — seems deep by AL Central standards.

American League West

Houston lost both Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman during the off-season, yet the Astros remain a +160 favourite in the BetMGM baseball odds to take the West. But are they as good as they used to be? Or is it their legacy of past success and familiar names (Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez) that’s attracting the attention — and money — of bettors? 

Certainly, you could make the case that a relatively full season from Jacob deGrom could propel Texas (+200) to the division title, especially when you factor in that the Rangers have two promising pitching prospects (Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter) in the rotation and an ascendant second-year star in outfielder Wyatt Langford.

Seattle, which has one of the best pitching staffs in baseball and one of the worst everything elses, is listed at +225.

National League East

There aren’t a lot of weak spots in the roster of the Atlanta Braves (+115), who will field a competitive squad even before the return of Ronald Acuna (probably in May) and Spencer Strider (likely within a month). 

That said, BetMGM sees the Phillies (+200) and Mets (+230) as capable of keeping it close. Philadelphia’s lineup has barely changed from last year’s 95-win team. New York added Juan Soto and will likely benefit from a full season of Kodai Senga on the mound. 

American League East

Let’s get this out of the way: BetMGM has the Toronto Blue Jays (+1200) finishing last in the East. And it’s not hard to see why: The rotation is getting older, there are weak spots in the batting order and no team in history has recovered from the shock of having its two leading hitters cut off so much of their hair.

Here’s the upside: If you think the data nerds at BetMGM are out to lunch, you can make them pay — literally. The Blue Jays are listed at +6600 to win the World Series in 2025.

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Predictably, the New York Yankees are favoured to win both the division (+145) and the American League (+350). But the team has been beset by injuries, which would appear to make them at least a little bit vulnerable.

Who can capitalize? Judging from their offence, the Orioles (+300) would appear to have a shot. They are stacked with young studs. Judging from their pitching staff, however, the Orioles would appear to have a front office that hibernates from October to March.

The smart money might want to take a closer look at the Boston Red Sox, who are listed at +250 to win the division — and a tantalizing +1800 to win the World Series. The Red Sox acquired one of the best pitchers in baseball (Garrett Crochet) and an ideal infielder to hit at Fenway (Alex Bregman). They also boast three of the best prospects in the game, including Kristian Campbell and Roman Anthony. 

National League Central

This one is usually seen as a neck-and-neck-and-neck race — with none of the necks belonging to the Pittsburgh Pirates. But the oddsmakers at BetMGM perceive things as more clear-cut this season. The Chicago Cubs are the division favourite at +115, followed by the Brewers at +275 and the Reds at +450. 

The Cubs and Brewers make for an interesting comparison. They both have quality at the top of the rotation. They both have outfielders who can crush it. They both have closers that are mid-tier at best. The race may be closer than the odds make it out to be, especially if Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff is fully recovered from shoulder surgery.

Meanwhile, longtime baseball fans may do a double take when they discover that the NL Central basement is poised to be occupied by the St. Louis Cardinals (+900). This franchise is almost always competitive, but this year has questions all over the roster. Question No. 1: Is that really their starting rotation?

National League West

If you tuned in to baseball social media during the off-season, the prevailing consensus was that Los Angeles was single-handedly destroying the very foundation of the sport by signing roughly 130 per cent of available free agents.

The result? The Dodgers can waltz into the playoffs in the figurative sense — and also possibly in the literal sense — in 2025. They’re that good. BetMGM has them as a -600 favourite, which means you’d need to risk $600 on L.A. just for the chance of making a $100 profit. Odds don’t get much shorter in baseball.

For a more intriguing potential wager, look to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Granted, they are unlikely to win the West — at +650, they are expected to finish well back of the Dodgers in the division. But the baseball playoffs are another beast. Arizona has one of the best offences in baseball. They’ve got two aces at the top of their rotation (Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes) and two dynamic young pitchers (Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson) on the rise. And right now, they are +3000 to win the World Series.

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