Italy vs Germany predictions, odds and betting tips

Italy and Germany prepare to renew hostilities as the Nations League resumes.

Italy vs Germany best bets

• The game to end as a draw – 11/5 with SBK
• Under 2.5 goals to be scored – 13/20 with Paddy Power
• Mateo Retegui to score any time – 9/4 with Sky Bet

Italy vs Germany odds

Find the latest match odds for Italy vs Germany. All odds are provided by our best football betting sites. Odds are subject to change.

Italy vs Germany predictions

Two European heavyweights are ready to do battle in the quarter-finals of the Nations League in the current international break, with San Siro hosting the first instalment of a two-legged tie.

Italy flattered to deceive at the European Championship last summer, scraping out of their group unconvincingly and then losing meekly to Switzerland in the round of 16.

They bounced back in the group stage of the Nations League, though, finishing level on points with France in top spot and nine clear of third-placed Belgium.

This is not a vintage Italian squad and it would be a slight surprise if they went all the way in the Nations League, but Luciano Spalletti has at least moved the team forward over the last six months. 

Unlike the Azzurri, Germany impressed at Euro 2024. Granted, they did have home advantage on their side. But under the astute Julian Nagelsmann, Germany were only narrowly defeated by Spain in the quarter-finals. They were the eventual champions’ toughest opponents last summer.

In many ways the Nationalelf looked like a club side. It can be hard to achieve cohesion both in and out of possession at international level, but Nagelsmann succeeded where many of his peers failed. That bodes well for both the Nations League knockout phase and, more importantly, World Cup 2026.

Germany cruised to first place in their group, accumulating 14 points (second only to Spain), scoring a tournament-high 18 goals, and conceding a joint-low four.

They are not at full strength during this international break, however. Manuel Neuer has retired from international football and his long-time understudy Marc-Andre ter Stegen is out injured.

Attacking midfielder Florian Wirtz and the versatile Kai Havertz are also on the treatment table and will play no part in the quarter-finals.

Federico Dimarco is the only notable absentee for Italy, with the Inter defender having pulled a muscle earlier this month.

Italy have long been considered Germany’s bogey team, with the former eliminating the latter from the World Cups of 1970, 1982 and 2006, as well as at Euro 2012.

Germany got the better of Italy at Euro 2016, though, and the Azzurri have not won any of the last six clashes between the pair. Will that trend continue on Thursday?

Italy vs Germany betting tips

Will Italy or Germany be celebrating on Thursday night after this clash at San Siro?

Draw

Germany are the bookies’ favourites to advance to the semi-finals, but they could be in for a tough game at San Siro.

Italy line up with three at the back and they should have some success in smothering a Germany frontline that will be spearheaded by either Tim Kleindienst or Jonathan Burkardt.

Both of those strikers are enjoying excellent seasons in the Bundesliga, but with six caps between them they are inexperienced at this level.

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Whether Italy have enough about them to win remains to be seen. Germany have not lost a competitive match in 90 minutes since World Cup 2022.

Nagelsmann, you feel, would be pretty content with a draw in Milan ahead of the home leg on Monday.

Go for a draw at 11/5 with SBK

Under 2.5 goals

As mentioned above, Germany will play with a new-look attack against Italy. Jamal Musiala is a source of familiarity, but none of Burkardt, Kleindienst, Deniz Undav, Karim Adeyemi or Nadiem Amiri has made more than five appearances for the national team.

Germany may therefore lack some of their usual rhythm. And although they scored 18 goals in the group phase, nine of those came against whipping boys Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Italy were the top scorers in their group, finding the back of the net 13 times – one more than France. They certainly carried more of a threat in the final third than they did at Euro 2024.

On this occasion, though, defence could prove to be the best form of attack. Italy will go without the ball for relatively long periods of the first leg, which will limit their opportunities at the other end. Spalletti will be keen to keep things tight at the back first and foremost.

All things considered, this looks set to be a tight encounter.

Back under 2.5 goals at 13/20 with Paddy Power

Mateo Retegui to score any time

A little over two years ago, hardly any Italian football fans had heard of Mateo Retegui.

Born in Argentina, the striker represented that country at Under-19 and Under-20 level, while he plied his trade for Tigre (on loan from Boca Juniors) in Argentina’s top flight.

His Italian roots saw him approached by then-manager Roberto Mancini in February 2023, and Retegui moved to Serie A side Genoa later that year.

Now at Atalanta, he is the top scorer in Italy’s top division with 22 goals, seven clear of Moise Kean in second.

Retegui is having a terrific campaign and he will now be looking to do damage to Germany in the Nations League.

Choose Mateo Retegui to score any time at 9/4 with Sky Bet

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