Hong Leong forecasts 2025 Malaysia TIV at 750k units

How many new cars will Malaysia buy this year, after an insane 816,747-unit record last year? RHB Investment Bank predicts 730,000, CIMB Research 760,000, the Malaysian Automotive Association 780,000, Maybank Investment Bank Research 790,000 and Kenanga Investment Bank 805,000.

Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB), however, forecasts a conservative 750,000 units, or a 8.2% drop from last year. According to Bernama, it said in a recent note that “the entrance of several new electric vehicle (EV) players into the market continues to pose a threat to non-national original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) due to their attractive pricing”, but there remains upside potential from new launches in late-2024 and 2025, as well as more aggressive sales and marketing activities.

Meanwhile, Kenanga Investment Bank, which predicts an 805,000-unit 2025 total industry volume (TIV), expects a “two-speed” market this year – “it will be business as usual for the affordable segment, as its target customers – the B40 and lower-tier M40 groups – will be spared the impact of the impending RON 95 subsidy rationalisation and could potentially benefit from the introduction of the progressive wage model.”

“However, the same cannot be said for the premium segment. Its target customers, the upper-tier M40 and T15 groups, may hold back from buying new cars, down-trade to smaller cars, or switch to hybrids and EVs to reduce their fuel expenses following the introduction of fuel subsidy rationalisation,” it continued. MIDF Research thinks so too.

RHB Investment Bank, which foresees a very conservative 730,000 new cars to be sold in Malaysia in 2025, anticipates weaker year-on-year TIV in the first quarter (1Q25), supported by a decline in order backlogs.

“As year-to-date TIV has been exceptionally weak (-14.3% YoY), we believe the TIV for 1Q25 will decrease YoY, supporting our expectation of a cyclical downturn in the sector, compounded by tapering order backlogs for major carmakers. We expect the TIV in March to increase month-on-month, driven by carmakers ramping up sales through aggressive festive season promotions ahead of Aidilfitri in April,” it said.

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