GOP divisions emerge in upcoming marquee races

Divisions between different factions of the GOP are beginning to take shape in key states ahead of the 2025 and 2026 elections. 

In Florida, first lady Casey DeSantis mulling a gubernatorial bid as Rep. Byron Donalds launches his campaign with the support of President Trump. In Arizona, a full-fledged primary battle could play out in that state’s governor’s race between Trump-backed Karrin Taylor Robson and former House Freedom Caucus Chair Rep. Andy Biggs. And in Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton is giving serious indications that he will challenge incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the state’s Senate primary. 

These emerging dynamics could lead to expensive and bruising primaries as the party seeks to maintain its grip on power even red states throughout the Trump administration. 

One common denominator in Florida and Arizona is the impact of Trump’s endorsement. The coveted backing has given past GOP primary candidates access to resources and a boost in name ID. 

Trump backed Robson in December, and she has touted the president’s endorsement since announcing her candidacy earlier this month. The president similarly backed Donalds on Truth Social days before the congressman formally launched his campaign this week. 

Unlike Robson, Donalds is not facing a primary challenge — yet. But the two races have the potential to see bruising GOP primaries play out for very different reasons. 

Florida governor's race

In Florida, the brewing battle can be traced back to Ron DeSantis and Donalds falling out over the congressman’s decision to endorse Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. The two also sparred over state education guidelines set by Ron DeSantis on Black history in 2023.

Donalds has been complimentary of the governor since announcing his run, but the governor has continued to tout the first lady as a strong, potential candidate. When asked about whether she would run for governor on Friday, Casey DeSantis told reporters “when you see a fork in the road, take it.”

Early polling indicates the state’s first lady has an advantage over Donalds in terms of name ID. A poll released last week by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research lab found that 33 percent of registered voters in Florida had never heard of the first lady, while 66 percent said they had never heard of Donalds.

“She’s clearly not going to be receiving an endorsement from Trump, and what we’re potentially looking at is a Trump-versus-DeSantis Republican primary battle,” said Justin Sayfie, a Florida Republican strategist.

Arizona governor's race

In Arizona, Robson, a billionaire businesswoman and former gubernatorial candidate, is seeking to lean more into Trump’s rhetoric and the party's populist wing after losing the primary and his endorsement to Kari Lake in 2022. 

Trump’s endorsement of Robson this time around is seen as a significant boost, but Biggs has ties to the staunch conservative grassroots. 

“While Robson is conservative, she certainly doesn’t have the conservative record that Biggs has,” said Brian Seitchik, an Arizona-based Republican strategist and former Trump campaign staffer.

“I still assert that Biggs is going to need a co-endorsement to make this a race and the two big factors are resources and the Trump endorsement and Karrin Taylor Robson, right now, has both,” he continued. “I’m not saying that Biggs can’t win without the Trump endorsement in the primary but Robson’s resources with the Trump endorsement is a pretty powerful punch. 

A poll released this week by Arizona Public Opinion Pulse showed Robson with 11 percent support among registered Arizona Republicans, while Biggs came in with 14 percent support. Interestingly enough, conservative activist Charlie Kirk also received 14 percent support.

Texas Senate race

It’s even more unclear how things will pan out in Texas’s Senate race, where Paxton has publicly flirted with the possibility of challenging Cornyn. Paxton told conservative commentator Tucker Carlson in an interview earlier this month that he did not know whether he was running for sure, but he was “looking at it.” 

Early polling indicates Paxton could pose a serious threat to Cornyn in a Republican primary. A polling aggregate from the Texas Politics Project and the University of Texas at Austin shows Cornyn with a 48 percent approval rating among voters in the state who identify as Republicans. Paxton, on the other hand, had a 60 percent approval rating. 

Paxton has referred to Cornyn as “anti-Trump” and has argued he is more loyal to the president. Cornyn backed Trump during the 2024 GOP primaries but not until after he won the New Hampshire primary.

“The only outcome that I could see playing out in a positive way for most people would be for Trump to find something to give Paxton,” said an unnamed Republican strategist. “Is there something he could give him the admin to get him not to run because if Paxton runs, I don’t know how Trump doesn’t get behind him. That race and that scenario would test the bounds of Trump in DC by extreme measures in terms of his relationship with the Senate.” 

But Paxton comes with baggage. He was indicted in 2015, during the first year of his tenure as attorney general, on charges of securities fraud over allegations that, while a state legislator, he solicited investments for a server company without disclosing he was being paid by that company. Paxton pleaded not guilty. After his trial was delayed, Paxton reached a deal with prosecutors in 2024 for him to pay $300,000 and take part in community service to avoid further proceedings.

Cornyn has significant resources behind him, as well. Punchbowl reported the Senate veteran raised more than $100,000 at an event kicking off his reelection bid in Washington this week. 

“I think there’s going to be a lot of tension in Texas political circles, in donor circles, in MAGA circles, as to what to do with that particular race,” the strategist said. 

Strategists note that Trump’s role in each of the primaries will differ based on the state. More importantly, it could play differently in a governor's race than a Senate race. 

“These gubernatorial races are so personal to states,” the strategist said. “Yes, the Trump endorsement will matter. Yes, what’s happening in Washington will matter. Yes, what kinds of policies and successes we have as a party will matter. But the way voters in primaries and general elections view governors races is they are much more personal. They are more about the people involved in running.”