Good and bad Cheltenham favourites 2025
The dream for any punter heading into the Cheltenham Festival is to pull off a winning acca across the week. There are plenty of odds-on favourites but it is finding the ones that win and avoiding the ones that lose that most find the hardest part. There are 28 races across the 4 days and last year there were 9 winning favourites (or joint favourites) which means 32% of races were won by the market leader. 2023 also produced 9 winning favourites and 2022 even more with 12 winning favourites which is a remarkable 43% of races won by the jolly. The purpose of this piece is to take a closer look at the shortest-priced favourites at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival and find which ones are worth backing and which ones are worth taking on. Hopefully by the end you will have a much clearer picture on which are worth siding with and including in your acca and which are worth avoiding or even more so opposing at cramped odds. To back or to lay, that is the question Tuesday – Champion Day Supreme Novice Hurdle The hugely exciting KOPEK DES BORDES puts his unbeaten record on the line in the Cheltenham Festival opener. He is understandably a short price for success off the back of that ‘wow’ performance at the Dublin Racing Festival where he won by 13 lengths. I do think he is the best horse in the race with the most potential so I won’t be advising you to oppose. What I have done is have an each way saver in the race as with the amount of places on offer and the odds it is definitely worth doing. The favourite is quite a free going horse so there is a small chance the occasion could get to him so I wouldn’t want to be all in by any means but I am expecting him to back up that impressive win last time on the biggest stage of all here. Back Kopek Des Bordes at 4/5 Arkle Chase In recent years the Tuesday of the Cheltenham Festival has often proved a good day for favourite backers and it could be 2-0 to punters after the first two races as MAJBOROUGH looks pretty bombproof here. He won at the Festival last year and has done nothing wrong so far over fences making it 2-2 at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. With Sir Gino ruled out for the season he is understandably a short price and I think he’ll win this comfortably. He is a big horse who should go on improving for a while yet and I just don’t see anything good enough to challenge him in here so definitely one for the accumulators. Back Majborough at 8/15 Champion Hurdle The Champion Hurdle is looking like the race of the Festival and even with Brighterdaysahead now in the race CONSTITUTION HILL is still very much the one to beat. He is yet to taste defeat and while he hasn’t looked back to his old self on the racecourse in two starts this season he has still done enough to think he could be ready to peak now. He won in a canter despite rattling the last on Trials Day but has looked good in a racecourse gallop since and all the vibes seem to be right from the stable. He obviously won this 2 years ago and I think he’ll regain his crown here so definitely worth keeping on side. Back Constitution Hill at 8/13 Style Wednesday Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase As we move into the Wednesday there aren’t as many odds-on shots but I still feel some of the favourites are good value and BALLYBURN is certainly one of them. He hacked up at the Festival last year and has won 2 from 3 over fences this season. His defeat came at the hands of Sir Gino where the ground was probably too quick and the trip too sharp. He was very much back on track winning well at the Dublin Racing Festival and promises to do even better stretching out beyond 3 miles here. His jumping improved last time and he remains a horse with tons of potential and possibly even a future Gold Cup contender further down the line. Back Ballyburn at 6/4 Cross Country Chase The Cross Country is never a race I go mad in so while I am probably keeping STUMPTOWN on side he wouldn’t be one I’d be putting in any accumulator as I wouldn’t have a strong opinion. I do think he probably wants softer ground to be seen to best effect but looking at his form he did handle good ground when winning at Sandown a couple of years ago so he might get away with it. I know the ground is softer on the Cross Country course as well so there shouldn’t be too many excuses. Galvin is obviously a very good horse but he is an 11yo now and is still second fav so that probably tells you about the lack of quality on show. Back Stumptown at 5/2 Champion Chase For a horse that has won 17 from 20 you probably think I’m mad to be taking on JONBON but I just can’t get behind him at the current price. He has been to the Cheltenham Festival twice and has lost both times. In fact, all 3 of his defeats have come at Cheltenham. He has done nothing wrong this season winning 3-3 but the strength of his form doesn’t look insurmountable and Energum
The dream for any punter heading into the Cheltenham Festival is to pull off a winning acca across the week. There are plenty of odds-on favourites but it is finding the ones that win and avoiding the ones that lose that most find the hardest part.
There are 28 races across the 4 days and last year there were 9 winning favourites (or joint favourites) which means 32% of races were won by the market leader. 2023 also produced 9 winning favourites and 2022 even more with 12 winning favourites which is a remarkable 43% of races won by the jolly.
The purpose of this piece is to take a closer look at the shortest-priced favourites at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival and find which ones are worth backing and which ones are worth taking on. Hopefully by the end you will have a much clearer picture on which are worth siding with and including in your acca and which are worth avoiding or even more so opposing at cramped odds.
