Elite Eight teams ranked by championship chances in 2025 men’s March Madness

Let’s rank the Elite Eight at the 2025 men’s NCAA tournament.

The 2025 men’s NCAA tournament only has eight teams left standing. This has been one of the chalkiest tournaments in recent March Madness history, with the higher-seeded teams advancing through the bracket with little trouble. All four No. 1 seeds are still alive as we reach the Elite Eight, and No. 3 seed Texas Tech is the closest thing left to a Cinderella.

Duke and Florida continue to look like the favorites for the national championship. It’s a toss-up right now on which team is more impressive. The Blue Devils have a singular superstar in freshman forward Cooper Flagg and so many of great pieces around him. Florida is a true collective, with three standout guards and the best big man rotation left in the field. They both face stiff tests in the Elite Eight, but anything less than a title game collision course will be a surprise.

Let’s rank the eight teams left in the field by their national championship chances.

8. Michigan State Spartans

Tom Izzo is on the doorstep of his 9th Final Four appearance, and like many of his signature teams, these Spartans get the job done by doing the dirty work. Michigan State is elite at defense, rebounding, and closing out on opposing shooters, and that’s been enough to get them to the regional final. The offense can be an eyesore at times, putting a huge burden on the shoulders of freshman guard Jase Richardson. Richardson is a projected lottery pick for a reason, and his nuclear shooting and high-IQ floor game shined in the Sweet 16 win over Ole Miss. Jaden Akins has to deliver secondary scoring for the Spartans to continue their run, and it helps when Coen Carr is looking like a human highlight reel in transition. It usually isn’t very pretty, but Izzo’s brand of ball is again advancing far into the bracket.

Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images

7. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech’s season was in imminent demise as it trailed Arkansas by 16 points with under 12 minutes to go in the Sweet 16. That’s when the Red Raiders decided the lock in, ending regulation on a 29-13 run to force overtime and eventually push their way into the Elite Eight. Star forward Darrion Williams had a rough shooting night until he took over late, hitting a three-pointer to tie the game at the end of the second half, and then hitting the game-winning layup with seven seconds left in OT. The combination of Williams and big man JT Toppin gives the Red Raiders a chance in any matchup. Keeping freshman wing Christian Anderson going (22 points in the Sweet 16) would give them the supplemental scorer they need. Texas Tech’s perimeter defense can still be a bit shaky which is a big concern against Florida, but this team clearly knows how to dig deep and let their stars carry them across the finish line.

6. Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee is back in the Elite Eight for the second straight season, and it’s still looking for the program’s first-ever Final Four appearance. The Vols get it done on the defensive end, and they suffocated UCLA in the round of 32 and Kentucky in the Sweet 16 to get back to the regional final. Zakai Zeigler is the heart-and-soul of the Vols as a pint-sized fifth-year point guard, and he put on a show with 18 points and 10 assists over the Wildcats. Zeigler’s surprising offensive aggression paired well with Chaz Lanier’s perimeter scoring to keep the Vols’ humming. Tennessee vs. Houston will be a showdown of the country’s two best defenses remaining. With buckets at a premium, Zeigler maintaining his hot play will be critical.

Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images

5. Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama was a national title favorite coming into the season. While the Crimson Tide have been a good team all year, their championship ceiling hasn’t come out much. That changed in the Sweet 16 against BYU, when Alabama torched the nets for one of the great offensive performances you will ever see. The Tide scored 113 points, ripped 25 made three-pointers at a 49 percent clip, and consistently got the free throw line in their rout of the Cougars. Mark Sears was always the player that would make this team go. He didn’t live up the preseason National Player of the Year hype, but he still has a chance to be a March Madness hero. Sears’ 10 made three-pointers vs. BYU were proof that he can still takeover a game when he’s hot. With mighty Duke looming next, Sears needs to somehow be the best player on the floor again if Bama wants to make a second straight Final Four appearance.

4. Houston Cougars

Houston’s aggressive hedges in ball screen actions met its match against elite Purdue point guard Braden Smith in the Sweet 16. Smith was able to extend his dribble and find open shooters across the court in a way most teams can’t against the Cougars. Houston needed to win this with offense, and head coach Kelvin Sampson’s beautiful ATO with two seconds left delivered the victory. Milos Uzan will be remembered for hitting the game-winner as the inbounds passer, but his three-point shooting (6-of-9 from deep) and playmaking kept Houston in front well before that. Uzan is turning into exactly what Houston’s offense needed to avoid long droughts. If it wants to make the Final Four for the second time under Sampson, LJ Cryer needs to find his comfortable zone, too. Houston-Tennessee is about to be the ultimate rock fight, but that’s just the way the Cougars like it.

Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

3. Auburn Tigers

Michigan had Auburn on the ropes in the Sweet 16 with a nine-point advantage in the second half. The Tigers were pounding the ball inside star Johni Broome on the block, but Michigan’s size was forcing him into misses and turnovers. Finally, Bruce Pearl remembered his team has more than one way to win. Auburn started getting its guards loose going downhill, and suddenly the Wolverines’ lead evaporated and the Tigers were going to the Elite Eight. Tahaad Pettiford is a hell of a changeup for the Auburn offense as an ultra slippery guard who creates so much space in any direction and has remarkable shooting touch. Denver Jones also found his offense off the bounce against Michigan, hitting some acrobatic shots when the post-ups weren’t dropping. Auburn was the best team in the country for the first 80 percent of this season, but they just haven’t seemed right since the end of the regular season. This win was a reminder that the Tigers still have the horses to pull away from anyone, provided Pearl is pushing the right buttons.

2. Florida Gators

Florida’s depth and balance were on full display in its Sweet 16 win over Maryland. The Gators had six players score in double-figures led by Will Richard’s 15 points. Florida was able to stop Maryland’s powerful inside scoring attack even as star center Alex Condon turned his ankle thanks to its fantastic front court depth. Head coach Todd Golden has this team humming right now: Walter Clayton Jr. is a star who can drag the Gators over the finish line, Richard and Alijah Martin are great defenders who can score on cuts and drives, and there’s so much size up front to clean the glass and protect the rim. Florida feels like a special team right now in large part because all of the pieces fit perfectly. Winners of 15 of their last 16 games against a strong schedule, the Gators don’t plan on slowing down anytime soon.

Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images

1. Duke Blue Devils

Cooper Flagg played arguably the best game of his transcendent young career in Duke’s Sweet 16 win over Arizona, finishing with 30 points, seven assists, six rebounds, and three blocks in the win. Flagg impacts the game in every area, and his recent development as a three-point shooter (43 percent from deep since turning 18 on Dec. 21) and lead ball handler is the stuff of superstars. Duke is far more than a one-man show, though. Fellow freshman Khaman Maluach is the biggest player left in the tournament and is a force at the rim on both ends because of his size. Kon Knueppel is Duke’s third freshman lottery pick who keeps the offense going with shot-making and pick-and-roll creation. Sion James is the unsung hero as a 6’6 Swiss Army Knife who defends every position, handles and passes in transition, and is suddenly hot as a shooter. Duke checks every box for a national championship team. The pressure is on Jon Scheyer to deliver, because the Blue Devils’ best game feels better than anyone else’s.