Corbin Burnes To Miss Next Start With Shoulder Inflammation

Diamondbacks right-hander Corbin Burnes is battling inflammation in his right shoulder, as reported by Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic. Piercoro adds that Arizona intends to scratch Burnes from his next start. It’s unclear whether or not he’ll ultimately require a stint on the injured list due to the issue, though Piecoro relays that manager Torey Lovullo told reporters before today’s game that they remain hopeful he’ll be back on the mound after just one missed start. The manager suggests that Burnes has been nagged by fatigue in his shoulder going back his last couple of starts, and that led to the club sending him for an MRI back in Arizona.

That MRI revealed “a little bit” of inflammation in Lovullo’s words, leading to the decision to skip the right-hander’s next start. Even as the Diamondbacks remain optimistic that Burnes will miss just one outing, the news is worrying for fans in the desert. After all, Arizona has fallen to fourth place in a hyper-competitive NL West division despite their solid enough 17-15 record. That record leaves them on the outside looking in for an NL Wild Card spot, behind the Padres, Giants, Phillies, and Reds in the standings aside from the division-leading Dodgers, Cubs, and Mets.

That lackluster pitching is a big reason for that middling record. While Arizona’s offense has been phenomenal so far, their run prevention has left something to be desired despite being a major strength on paper. The starting five’s 4.27 ERA is a bottom-ten figure in baseball this year, and Brandon Pfaadt is the only pitcher in the mix who has met expectations with a dazzling 2.78 ERA across six starts. Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and especially Eduardo Rodriguez have all struggled so far this year.

Burnes, meanwhile, has a decent enough ERA of 3.58 that clocks in 18% better than league average by ERA+. That’s not quite what the Diamondbacks had in mind when they signed him to a six-year, $210MM deal over the winter, however, and his peripherals tell a more alarming story. His pedestrian 20.0% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, and he’s paired it with a hefty 12.1% walk rate after having reliably excellent command in recent years. Burnes’s 5.08 FIP, 5.31 xERA, and 4.61 SIERA are all very worrisome, and suggest that even his mid-rotation production to this point in the year isn’t sustainable.

Perhaps this inflammation that he’s been battling is at least part of the explanation for the righty’s struggles. The 30-year-old hurler has made at least 32 starts in each of the past three seasons, and while that durability is admirable it’s the nature of pitching in this current era of baseball that hurlers need more rest than ever before as they push themselves for higher velocity and maximum spin efficiency. Perhaps this breather will be enough to calm the inflammation and get Burnes back on track, which would surely be a relief for Arizona as they fight to force their way back into the NL playoff picture after their surprising World Series run in 2023 and narrowly missing out on October last year.

Whether the inflammation forces Burnes to sit down for just one start or requires a stint on the injured list, the Diamondbacks are reasonably well-equipped to handle his absence even after losing sixth starter Jordan Montgomery to Tommy John surgery earlier this year. Ryne Nelson is in the bullpen as a long reliever but threw 68 pitches his last time out and is stretched out enough for a spot start or even to slide into the rotation longer-term as needed. He appears to be the most likely candidate to replace Burnes, though hurlers like Tommy Henry and Cristen Mena are also on the 40-man roster as potential depth options.