Bregman deal with Red Sox makes AL East even stronger

It had been a while since the Boston Red Sox made a splash in free agency, but the club finally jumped back into the deep end by landing Alex Bregman late Wednesday night.

The signing is a big one — both in dollars and symbolic meaning — for the Red Sox, who have positioned themselves as a legitimate contender. Bregman joins a club that has also added frontline starters Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler, in addition to reliever Aroldis Chapman this off-season.

The result is a Red Sox team that’s much better than its 2024 iteration and should challenge for a wild-card spot, if not the American League East crown.

Here’s a closer look at the contract and how Bregman fits in Boston.

The deal:

Alex Bregman agrees to a three-year, $120 million deal with the Boston Red Sox. The contract includes two opt outs and deferred money. 

The runners-up:

The Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs and Toronto Blue Jays were all linked to Bregman, with the Tigers even offering a six-year, $171.5 million deal, according to multiple reports.

The player:

Bregman was a pillar in the Astros lineup over the past nine years and one of the key members of the club’s two World Series championships. Detractors will point out that the soon-to-be 31-year-old has experienced a declining walk rate and OPS in each of the past three seasons, however, he’s still an incredibly productive player.

The right-handed hitter has posted at least 4.1 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, in six of the past eight seasons, with one of those exceptions being the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. His contact ability is truly elite — Bregman’s whiff percentage ranked in the 98th percentile last season — while his bat possesses some real pop. Though he likely won’t come close to the career-high 41 home runs he launched in 2019, Bregman can still be counted on for 30 doubles and 20-25 long balls per season. 

Those numbers could stand to improve at Fenway Park, where Bregman has hit .375/.490/.750 with seven homers and nine doubles in 21 career games.

The fit:

Red Sox manager Alex Cora, who’s familiar with Bregman during his time as a coach with the Astros, is said to have pushed for the organization to bring him to Boston. Bregman has built a strong reputation as a leader and his veteran presence figures to be a strong addition to a young Red Sox clubhouse.

Here’s a stat that nicely illustrates Bregman’s championship pedigree: His 99 post-season games ranks eighth all time, behind only Yadier Molina, Jose Altuve, Manny Ramirez, David Justice, Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter.

Bregman is an excellent defensive third baseman but will reportedly move to second base in Boston with Rafael Devers in place at the hot corner. That will strengthen the club’s infield picture as well as the batting order, which also features the standout Jarren Duran and emerging Triston Casas.

The Red Sox look like a strong bet to improve upon their 81-81 record, which resulted in a third-place finish in the AL East last year. You could easily make the argument that their floor is wild-card contention, while a best-case scenario could see the club challenge the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles for division supremacy. Cora certainly has some excellent pieces in place this season.

The market:

MLB Trade Rumors forecasted a seven-year, $182 million deal for Bregman. He fell well below that but secured a contract from the Red Sox with a much stronger average annual value ($40 million). As well, if he enjoys a strong 2025 campaign, Bregman could opt out of his deal and re-enter free agency. 

The next domino:

Bregman represented the last impact free agent on the market. Now, fellow third baseman Nolan Arenado, who the St. Louis Cardinals have been trying to trade all winter, could warrant increased attention. The 33-year-old eight-time all-star vetoed a trade with the Astros earlier in the off-season. It remains to be seen if Houston re-engages or if the Yankees or Blue Jays try to bolster their infield by acquiring Arenado.