Box Office Predictions: Will Minecraft deliver WB a major hit?

It’s no exaggeration to say that the next few weeks will be pivotal for Warner Bros. While, at CinemaCon, they seemed bullish on the potential of their slate, it’s full of risky, big-budget gambles and following Joker: Folie a Deux, Alto Knights and Mickey 17, they are badly in need of a hit. This month, they have two movies that – if they succeed – could theoretically save the current regime. But, if they fail, it will be a disaster for all involved. The first of these two movies is A Minecraft Movie (the other – Sinners – opens Easter weekend). Based on the wildly popular video game, the movie is a trippy mix of live-action and CGI animation, with our critic, Alex Maidy, giving it a relatively positive review earlier this week.

Given how huge the video game is, industry estimates say the movie has a shot at a $100 million opening. I’m a bit confused by this prediction, as a few weeks ago, the goalpost seemed to be $60 million, which seemed a lot more achievable. Tracking and pre-sales have been strong. That said, I’m expecting the movie to open with $75 million, max, although if I’m wrong, it will actually be something I’ll be happy about, as the industry as a whole could use a legitimate hit right now following a brutal winter of box office disasters.

The Chosen is also releasing another batch of episodes in theaters this weekend. Last week, The Last Supper – Part 1 opened to more than $11 million, and the second part should perform just as well, making it nearly a lock for second place. Last weekend’s champ, A Working Man, with Jason Statham, should easily take third with about $7 million.

Snow White should continue its shocking fall at the box office and plummet to about $6 million, while The Friend, starring Bill Murray and Naomi Watts, could have a shot at about $4 million.

Here are my predictions:

1. A Minecraft Movie: $75 million
2. The Chosen: The Last Supper 2: $11 million
3. A Working Man: $7 million
4. Snow White: $6 million
5. The Friend: $4 million

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