Analyzing how Canadiens’ top line has them primed for playoff push
Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky comprise one of the NHL’s most dynamic lines, tying for the second-most on-ice goals at 5-on-5 (39). On the back end, Lane Hutson leads all rookies with 56 points, including 51 assists that put him on pace for the second most by a rookie defenceman in league history.
Despite losing their past five games, the Montreal Canadiens are where they want to be.
The other wild-card hopefuls in the Eastern Conference are also flailing, which has prevented Montreal from losing significant ground in the standings with 10 games left. During the Canadiens’ 0-3-2 skid, they have gone from the second wild-card spot to the first team out of the field.
If the Canadiens reach the playoffs for the first time since 2021, it will be on the backs of their top-line forwards and outstanding rookie defenceman.
Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky comprise one of the NHL’s most dynamic lines, tying for the second-most on-ice goals at 5-on-5 (39). On the back end, Lane Hutson leads all rookies with 56 points, including 51 assists that put him on pace for the second most by a rookie defenceman in league history. Hutson has had the puck on his stick for more than 179 minutes, which trails only Norris Trophy winners Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar.
“It’s real competitive right now, and that’s what makes it fun down the stretch,” Caufield told reporters Thursday. “(To) really be playing for something (is) pretty special. The guys in this room have been working a really long time for this opportunity.”
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When Canadiens coach Martin St. Louis puts those four players (plus Jayden Struble) on the ice at the same time, they form a Megazord that is difficult for opponents to contain. That is especially true since the 4 Nations Face-Off.
Over the past month, Montreal has generated 77.6 per cent of the expected goals and outscored opponents 8-2 at 5-on-5 in those minutes. (The Canadiens have generated 43.7 per cent of the expected goals and been outscored 29-25 when those five players have been off the ice.)
Only two regular five-man units in the league have generated a higher share of the expected goals at 5-on-5 since the regular season resumed.
The Caufield-Suzuki-Slafkovsky line has been on the ice for 15 Canadiens goals at 5-on-5 since the 4 Nations Face-Off break, regardless of the defence pair. That leads the league and accounts for close to half of Montreal’s 33 goals at 5-on-5 over the past 16 games.
It illustrates the lack of offensive support that the top line has been getting from the others. Although the Canadiens lead the league with 12 double-digit goal scorers, their attack does not feel that balanced.
The second line has struggled to gain traction with a variety of different forwards. The most recent version with Joshua Roy, Alex Newhook and Patrik Laine has a 40.6 per cent share of the expected goals at 5-on-5 in the past month. Newhook, Laine and Owen Beck did not fare much better as a unit (43.1 xGF%). On Friday, the Canadiens dressed 11 forwards against the Carolina Hurricanes, scratching Roy to accommodate the returning Kaiden Guhle.
Montreal’s fourth line of Emil Heineman, Jake Evans and Joel Armia has cooled off considerably after a hot first half of the season. Those three players have posted a 37.2 xGF% and been outscored 9-2 in their 5-on-5 minutes since the 4 Nations Face-Off break. (They had a 12-5 edge in on-ice goals before the break.)
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St. Louis told reporters Thursday after the Canadiens’ 6-4 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers that he wants his young team to find the fun in this pressure-filled situation. Montreal’s youthful leaders are embracing the challenge.
“Honestly, it’s pretty special and pretty cool that we’re in the position we’re in,” Hutson told reporters Thursday. “I think just having that pressure and knowing that each play you make is huge and can have a huge impact on the game, it’s pretty fun. I think we’re just excited we’re still in this position. We’ve just got to do something about it now.”
