10 thoughts on the verge of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs

1. The Metro mess leaves an open door 

I have been in the camp that the Washington Capitals are a good team, but not great. If you use Clear Site Analytics data going back to the 4 Nations Face-Off, they’ve been last in expected goal differential. Teams have bad stretches, but the underlying process is at least worth questioning.   

So when you zoom out, how does the Metro shake out in the playoffs? It seems ripe for a surprise run for someone. I don’t think they get upset in the first round by Montreal, the Rangers, or anyone in that spot, but I do think they could be gettable in Round 2. 

2. So could it be Carolina or New Jersey? 

We’re going to get a Hurricanes vs. Devils series in which the Canes will be favoured, but it can’t be by a ton. But in a surprising twist of fate, Carolina has been on a heater since it traded Mikko Rantanen. Logan Stankoven has six points in his 11 games as a Cane, and the team has gone 9-2 over that stretch. It just seems to fit. 

The Canes are fast and they lead the NHL in shot-attempt differential, so they’re going to carry the play against most teams. In the playoffs, you’re going to need some saves to stand up to that, and unfortunately for the Caps, Logan Thompson just suffered an upper-body injury. 

I don’t think even the Canes see themselves as a big Cup threat this year, but it’s not impossible to see a world where, thanks to a fortuitous draw, they find themselves in big games deep in the playoffs, yet again, and from there, you just never know. 

3. The Habs have a chance to put the wild-card chase on ice by Tuesday 

Is there a chance they could be caught? Sure.  

But not if they play well. 

They’ve got three non-playoff opponents coming up:

Saturday: vs. Philadelphia
Sunday: At Nashville
Tuesday: vs. Detroit

With seven games left, let’s say Montreal goes 4-3 on the way in, which at 79 points through 75 games is a reasonable guesstimate. That gets them to 89 points. Columbus would have to go 6-1-1 to pass them in that instance, where the Rangers would need to go 5-2 to claim the spot, and they have a brutal final three games (@Carolina, @Florida, vs. Tampa Bay).

So: Montreal has three bottom-tier opponents in the next five nights (by its matchup Tuesday, Detroit will know if it’s eliminated and may not be super motivated), while the Blue Jackets play three playoff teams.  

A three-game winning streak all but locks it up for Montreal. It’s go time, Habs fans. 

4. The Bruins did poorly … or did they? 

The Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t always been successful, but boy, did they “tank” well. They bottomed out hard for a year and hit bottom, landed Auston Matthews, then immediately bounced all the way back up into the playoffs, now qualifying them for an NHL-best ninth straight season. 

This year, the Boston Bruins were a legitimate playoff and even division contender in the Atlantic, but the season started bad and got worse, from the Jeremy Swayman contract fiasco to eventually trading captain Brad Marchand.  

Still, if you go back three months to early January, they were third in the Atlantic, fighting for a better playoff seed with Florida, which sat five points ahead of them. Two weeks later, they fell from a wild-card spot, and now look at this: 

Dead stinkin’ last in the East with a minus-55 goal differential.  

I ran the draft simulator on Tankathon five times, and in those first five simulations they picked 5^th, 5^th, 1^st, 1^st and 4^th. 

It’s more likely they’ll pick sixth than first, but the top five in this draft are supposed to be very good. The Bruins are likely going to make the most of this poor season, and they still have enough quality players — David Pastrnak, Charlie MacAvoy, Jeremy Swayman, Elias Lindholm, Nikita Zadorov — that they could legitimately fill in around them this off-season and be in the playoff hunt next year, with a future all-star from the draft. 

5. Could the Predators do the same? 

The Predators were a debacle this season, perhaps because their big off-season additions (Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault) were there as scorned lovers, cast aside by the teams they wanted. But as you can see from the Tankathon screenshot above, they’re also destined for a top-five pick. 

But it’s worth noting that the underlying metrics for the Preds are sneaky-good for a team in 31^st. They have the puck a lot, even when factoring in score effects, according to AWS “Ice Tilt,” and they got worse goaltending than they usually do. With a good off-season, and some internal improvement, could they be next year’s “surprise” team? 

6. The West isn’t quite settled yet, but it’s close 

The Flames can’t love the Wild’s remaining schedule. Minnesota has six games left, and one is against a team currently in the playoffs.

The Flames would be a lock for playoffs in the East, where 90 points would get you in. But they’re in the West, and the Wild have six games left, with a decent cushion.

If Minnesota goes let’s say 3-3 in those games, they’d earn six points, which would get them to 95. The Flames would need to go 6-1 to pass them in that case, as they’d lose the tiebreaker (based on regulation wins), meaning 5-1-1 wouldn’t cut it.

The Flames’ schedule:

If the Wild go 2-4, suddenly going 5-2 seems a lot more feasible for Calgary. But the point is, they need the Wild to stink against soft opponents. 

The other hope is that the Blues go cold, and finish 2-3 or worse, where the Flames could catch them at 95, and by then might hold the tiebreaker. Not impossible, given St. Louis’ tough next three matchups.

Utah and the Canucks are (un)officially done.

7. So, Dallas? 

Can’t say I saw this becoming a race at any point, but hold on to your butts: 

Dallas has lost twice since the trade deadline, and finishes against three pretty soft opponents. Four points back with a game in hand, this one could be a photo finish, and for the Jets, it’s a race worth pushing it to win. It could legitimately be the difference between a Stanley Cup Final appearance and a first-round exit. 

8. Head-to-head combat 

Love that Edmonton and Los Angeles have two head-to-head games down the stretch. They play April 5, in Los Angeles, and the 14^th, in Edmonton. Hockey Night in Canada is the first of the two, which I also love. And with the Kings holding the best home record in the NHL, finishing ahead of LA is probably another race worth winning.

9. The Leafs control their own destiny in the Atlantic 

What we’re looking at here is the back-to-back against Florida and Tampa Bay on Tuesday and Wednesday, coming up. Both are played in the state of Florida. 

Win the division and get Ottawa, an exciting young team but also one that might make a few mistakes, something the Leafs’ first round opponents in recent years haven’t done much of. 

Finish second in the division, and you’re in a dog fight to get past a round.

Leafs have never won the Atlantic Division before, and have a chance to truly make this year “different” by starting there. 

10. Great races, anyone’s year 

Wonderful to have so many great storylines in the final two weeks of the season, and it still feels like it’s anyone’s Cup, as I wrote here. 

If Canada has been waiting for a chance – and we have – this year sees the door wide open. 

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